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48/100

✓ Peer-reviewed alzhub usefulness score 48 out of 100. Mild cognitive impairment

Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies

Little is known about the dysbiosis of the gut microbiome in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) potentially at risk for the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD). So far, only cross-sectional differences and not longitudinal changes and their prognostic significance have been in the scope of research in MCI. Therefore, we investigated the ability of longitudinal taxonomic and functional gut microbiome data from 100 healthy controls (HC) to predict the progression from normal cognition to MCI over a 4-year follow-up period (4yFU). Logistic regression models were built with baseline features that best discriminated between the two groups using an ANOVA-type statistical analysis. The best model for the discrimination of MCI converters was based on functional data using Gene Ontology (GO), which included 14 features. This model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.84 at baseline, 0.78 at the 1-year follow-up (1yFU), and 0.75 at 4yFU. This functional model outperformed the taxonomic model, which included 38 genera features, in terms of descriptive performance and showed comparable efficacy to combined analyses integrating functional, taxonomic, and clinical characteristics. Thus, gut microbiome algorithms have the potential to predict MCI conversion in HCs over a 4-year period, offering a promising innovative supplement for early AD identification.

Key findings

Logistic regression models were built with baseline features that best discriminated between the two groups using an ANOVA-type statistical analysis.
The best model for the discrimination of MCI converters was based on functional data using Gene Ontology (GO), which included 14 features.
This model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.84 at baseline, 0.78 at the 1-year follow-up (1yFU), and 0.75 at 4yFU.
This functional model outperformed the taxonomic model, which included 38 genera features, in terms of descriptive performance and showed comparable efficacy to combined analyses integrating functional, taxonomic, and clinical characteristics.
Thus, gut microbiome algorithms have the potential to predict MCI conversion in HCs over a 4-year period, offering a promising innovative supplement for early AD identification.

Why it matters

Using gut microbiome data from 100 healthy controls, this study built a model that predicted progression from normal cognition to MCI over 4 years with an AUROC of 0.84 at baseline, declining to 0.75 at 4 years. The authors suggest gut microbiome algorithms have potential as a supplement for early prediction, but this is a predictive model and not a treatment or prevention study.

Study details

Study designcross-sectional
Participants14
Evidence strengthModerate

How this study scored 48/100

Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a snapshot of people at one point in time. Scored zero for effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.

Component	Points	Why
Journal tier	7 / 10	Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (International Journal of Molecular Sciences)
Journal's citation record	3 / 4	International Journal of Molecular Sciences: journal h-index 426 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29)
Study design	4 / 12	A snapshot of people at one point in time
Strength of evidence	3 / 5	Rated “moderate” in our summary
Peer-review validation	10 / 10	Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal.
How recent	4 / 5	2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here
Sample size	1 / 4	14 participants
Effect reported	0 / 3	No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0)
Studied in people	3 / 3	Studied in people (participant count stated)
Randomised / blinded	0 / 2	No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0)
Times cited	1 / 7	Cited 3 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10)
Citations per year	1 / 5	1.0 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025
Impact for its field and year	1 / 6	Cited 0.8× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI)
Cited by studies here	0 / 6	No other study in this library cites it
Still being cited	1 / 4	Cited 3 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex)
Senior author's track record	3 / 4	Last-listed author Christoph Laske: h-index 58 (OpenAlex, whole career)
Institution's track record	1 / 3	University of Tübingen: institution h-index 940 (OpenAlex)
Multi-centre collaboration	1 / 3	OpenAlex lists 3 institution(s) in 1 country
Indexed in PubMed	2 / 2	Indexed in PubMed (PMID 40429881)
Free to read	2 / 2	Free to read
Total	48 / 100	—

What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →

Read the original

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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris

Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.

APA 7th

Bauch, A., Baur, J., Honold, I., Willmann, M., Weber, G. L., Müller, S. A., et al. (2025). Prognostic Value of a Multivariate Gut Microbiome Model for Progression from Normal Cognition to Mild Cognitive Impairment Within 4 Years. International Journal of Molecular Sciences. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms26104735

Vancouver

Bauch A, Baur J, Honold I, Willmann M, Weber GL, Müller SA, et al. Prognostic Value of a Multivariate Gut Microbiome Model for Progression from Normal Cognition to Mild Cognitive Impairment Within 4 Years. International Journal of Molecular Sciences. 2025. doi:10.3390/ijms26104735. PMID: 40429881.

BibTeX

@article{bauch2025-40429881,
  author  = {Bauch, Anne and Baur, Julia and Honold, Iris and Willmann, Matthias and Weber, Greta Louise and Müller, Stephan A. and Sodenkamp, Sebastian and Peter, Silke and others},
  title   = {{Prognostic Value of a Multivariate Gut Microbiome Model for Progression from Normal Cognition to Mild Cognitive Impairment Within 4 Years}},
  journal = {International Journal of Molecular Sciences},
  year    = {2025},
  doi     = {10.3390/ijms26104735},
  pmid    = {40429881},
  url     = {https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms26104735}
}

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