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Predicting short-term survival for patients with advanced Alzheimer's disease
Volicer BJ, Hurley A, Fabiszewski KJ, Montgomery P, Volicer L.. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 1993-05-01
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
Objective The purpose of this study was to develop a statistical model for predicting short term survival in patients with dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT). Design A prospective cohort study. Setting Three 25-bed intermediate medical care units using a structured approach to patient care management including palliative care options and patients from a second, traditional long-term care setting. Participants Of 104 patients with advanced DAT monitored for 34 months, 68 patients (97% white male) who had at least one fever episode were included in the model development phase. Data from 71 additional DAT patients with at least one fever episode were used to test the statistical model. Main outcome measures Six-month survival following a fever episode. Results Older age and higher severity of DAT at the time of the fever episode, palliative care, and hospital admission for long-term care within 6 months prior to the fever were found to be positively associated with likelihood of mortality within 6 months of the fever onset. Adjusted odds ratios for each of these variables were statistically significant. The model performed well in subsequent testing on an independent sample of patients. Conclusion Results provide a formula which can be used to predict likelihood of dying within 6 months following onset of a fever in DAT patients. This statistical prediction is recommended for use in combination with clinical judgment to certify DAT patients for Medicare hospice coverage.
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APA 7th
Volicer, B. J., Hurley, A., Fabiszewski, K. J., Montgomery, P., & Volicer, L. (1993). Predicting short-term survival for patients with advanced Alzheimer's disease. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1993.tb01891.x
Vancouver
Volicer BJ, Hurley A, Fabiszewski KJ, Montgomery P, Volicer L. Predicting short-term survival for patients with advanced Alzheimer's disease. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. 1993. doi:10.1111/j.1532-5415.1993.tb01891.x. PMID: 8486888.
BibTeX
@article{volicer1993-8486888,
author = {Volicer, B. J. and Hurley, A. and Fabiszewski, K. J. and Montgomery, P. and Volicer, L.},
title = {{Predicting short-term survival for patients with advanced Alzheimer's disease}},
journal = {Journal of the American Geriatrics Society},
year = {1993},
doi = {10.1111/j.1532-5415.1993.tb01891.x},
pmid = {8486888},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1993.tb01891.x}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- Results Older age and higher severity of DAT at the time of the fever episode, palliative care, and hospital admission for long-term care within 6 months prior to the fever were found to be positively associated with likelihood of mortality within 6 months of the fever onset.
- Adjusted odds ratios for each of these variables were statistically significant.
- Conclusion Results provide a formula which can be used to predict likelihood of dying within 6 months following onset of a fever in DAT patients.
Study details
- Study designcohort study
- Participants104
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 60/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a cohort study following people over time. Scored zero for effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 35 of the 58 points we could judge it on, which is 60 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Journal of the American Geriatrics Society) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A cohort study following people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 1993 — older than 20 years, still counted |
| Sample size | 2 / 4 | 104 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 8486888) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 35 / 58 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 35 of the 58 points we could judge it on is 60 out of 100. |
| Total | 60 / 100 | — |
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