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Predicting death in the nursing home: development and validation of the 6-month Minimum Data Set mortality risk index
Porock D, Oliver DP, Zweig S, Rantz M, Mehr D, Madsen R, Petroski G.. The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences, 2005-04-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Background Currently, 24% of all deaths nationally occur in nursing homes making this an important focus of care. However, many residents are not identified as dying and thus do not receive appropriate care in the last weeks and months of life. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a predictive model of 6-month mortality risk using functional, emotional, cognitive, and disease variables found in the Minimum Data Set. Methods This retrospective cohort study developed and validated a clinical prediction model using stepwise logistic regression analysis. Our study sample included all Missouri long-term-care residents (43,510) who had a full Minimum Data Set assessment transmitted to the Federal database in calendar year 1999. Death was confirmed by death certificate data. Results The validated predictive model with a c-statistic of.75 included the following predictors: a) demographics (age and male sex); b) diseases (cancer, congestive heart failure, renal failure, and dementia/Alzheimer's disease); c) clinical signs and symptoms (shortness of breath, deteriorating condition, weight loss, poor appetite, dehydration, increasing number of activities of daily living requiring assistance, and poor score on the cognitive performance scale); and d) adverse events (recent admission to the nursing home). A simple point system derived from the regression equation can be totaled to aid in predicting mortality. Conclusions A reasonably accurate, validated model has been produced, with clinical application through a scored point system, to assist clinicians, residents, and family members in defining good goals of care around end-of-life care.
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APA 7th
Porock, D., Oliver, D. P., Zweig, S., Rantz, M., Mehr, D., Madsen, R., et al. (2005). Predicting death in the nursing home: development and validation of the 6-month Minimum Data Set mortality risk index. The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/60.4.491
Vancouver
Porock D, Oliver DP, Zweig S, Rantz M, Mehr D, Madsen R, et al. Predicting death in the nursing home: development and validation of the 6-month Minimum Data Set mortality risk index. The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences. 2005. doi:10.1093/gerona/60.4.491. PMID: 15933390.
BibTeX
@article{porock2005-15933390,
author = {Porock, D. and Oliver, D. P. and Zweig, S. and Rantz, M. and Mehr, D. and Madsen, R. and Petroski, G.},
title = {{Predicting death in the nursing home: development and validation of the 6-month Minimum Data Set mortality risk index}},
journal = {The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences},
year = {2005},
doi = {10.1093/gerona/60.4.491},
pmid = {15933390},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/60.4.491}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 7 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- Results The validated predictive model with a c-statistic of.75 included the following predictors: a) demographics (age and male sex); b) diseases (cancer, congestive heart failure, renal failure, and dementia/Alzheimer's disease); c) clinical signs and symptoms (shortness of breath, deteriorating condition, weight loss, poor appetite, dehydration, increasing number of activities of daily living requiring assistance, and poor score on the cognitive performance scale); and d) adverse events (recent admission to the nursing home).
Study details
- Study designcohort study
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 52/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a cohort study following people over time. Scored zero for sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 30 of the 58 points we could judge it on, which is 52 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A cohort study following people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2005 — older than 20 years, still counted |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 15933390) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 30 / 58 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 30 of the 58 points we could judge it on is 52 out of 100. |
| Total | 52 / 100 | — |
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