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Comparison of predictive modeling approaches for 30-day all-cause non-elective readmission risk
Tong L, Erdmann C, Daldalian M, Li J, Esposito T.. BMC medical research methodology, 2016-02-27
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Background This paper explores the importance of electronic medical records (EMR) for predicting 30-day all-cause non-elective readmission risk of patients and presents a comparison of prediction performance of commonly used methods. Methods The data are extracted from eight Advocate Health Care hospitals. Index admissions are excluded from the cohort if they are observation, inpatient admissions for psychiatry, skilled nursing, hospice, rehabilitation, maternal and newborn visits, or if the patient expires during the index admission. Data are randomly and repeatedly divided into fitting and validating sets for cross validations. Approaches including LACE, STEPWISE logistic, LASSO logistic, and AdaBoost, are compared with sample sizes varying from 2,500 to 80,000. Results Our results confirm that LACE has moderate discrimination power with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) around 0.65-0.66, which can be improved to 0.73-0.74 when additional variables from EMR are considered. These variables include Inpatient in the last six months, Number of emergency room visits or inpatients in the last year, Braden score, Polypharmacy, Employment status, Discharge disposition, Albumin level, and medical condition variables such as Leukemia, Malignancy, Renal failure with hemodialysis, History of alcohol substance abuse, Dementia and Trauma. When sample size is small (≤5000), LASSO is the best; when sample size is large (≥20,000), the predictive performance is similar. The STEPWISE method has a slightly lower AUC (0.734) comparing to LASSO (0.737) and AdaBoost (0.737). More than one half of the selected predictors can be false positives when using a single method and a single division of fitting/validating data. Conclusions True predictors can be identified by repeatedly dividing data into fitting/validating subsets and referring the final model based on summarizing results. LASSO is a better alternative to the STEPWISE logistic regression, especially when sample size is not large. The evidence for adequate sample size can be explored by fitting models on gradually reduced samples. Our model comparison strategy is not only good for 30-day all-cause non-elective readmission risk predictions, but also applicable to other types of predictive models in clinical studies.
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APA 7th
Tong, L., Erdmann, C., Daldalian, M., Li, J., & Esposito, T. (2016). Comparison of predictive modeling approaches for 30-day all-cause non-elective readmission risk. BMC medical research methodology. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-016-0128-0
Vancouver
Tong L, Erdmann C, Daldalian M, Li J, Esposito T. Comparison of predictive modeling approaches for 30-day all-cause non-elective readmission risk. BMC medical research methodology. 2016. doi:10.1186/s12874-016-0128-0. PMID: 26920363.
BibTeX
@article{tong2016-26920363,
author = {Tong, L. and Erdmann, C. and Daldalian, M. and Li, J. and Esposito, T.},
title = {{Comparison of predictive modeling approaches for 30-day all-cause non-elective readmission risk}},
journal = {BMC medical research methodology},
year = {2016},
doi = {10.1186/s12874-016-0128-0},
pmid = {26920363},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-016-0128-0}
}
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Key findings
- Approaches including LACE, STEPWISE logistic, LASSO logistic, and AdaBoost, are compared with sample sizes varying from 2,500 to 80,000.
- Results Our results confirm that LACE has moderate discrimination power with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) around 0.65-0.66, which can be improved to 0.73-0.74 when additional variables from EMR are considered.
- Conclusions True predictors can be identified by repeatedly dividing data into fitting/validating subsets and referring the final model based on summarizing results.
Study details
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 43/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 25 of the 58 points we could judge it on, which is 43 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (BMC medical research methodology) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2016 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 26920363) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Points | 25 / 58 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 25 of the 58 points we could judge it on is 43 out of 100. |
| Total | 43 / 100 | — |
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