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Assessing disaster vulnerability and proposing an adaptive disaster risk reduction framework: the case of Istanbul
Betül Hande Gürsoy Haksevenler, Berfin Şenik, Zeynep ŞENGÜL, Aydın Akpınar. Natural Hazards, 2025-05-13
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Abstract The importance of vulnerability analysis in disaster management is increasingly recognized, especially in megacities like Istanbul. This study focuses on conducting an in-depth analysis of the vulnerabilities of Istanbul's districts to various disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, and sea-level rise. The evaluation considered three key factors: exposure, which refers to the shocks and stresses that a district may experience and the frequency and extent of potential losses; sensitivity, which indicates how the district responds to these shocks; and adaptive capacity, which reflects the district’s ability to withstand and recover from such impacts. According to these key factors, indicators were identified, relevant data were collected and generated, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method was applied for weighting. The study reveals that districts located in the southern belt, particularly those with dense urbanization and coastal areas, exhibit higher levels of vulnerability. Among Istanbul's 39 districts, 13 districts, including Gungoren, Bahcelievler, and Zeytinburnu, were classified as highly vulnerable. Additionally, 14 districts were moderately vulnerable, 9 had low vulnerability, and 3, including Silivri, Catalca, and Sile, had very low vulnerability. An adaptive disaster risk reduction framework was proposed for the districts. These findings are intended to assist local governments in more effectively planning disaster management and risk reduction strategies. The findings support Istanbul's resilience and offer valuable guidance for urban planning and disaster management, both locally and globally. Graphical abstract
Key findings
- These findings are intended to assist local governments in more effectively planning disaster management and risk reduction strategies.
Why it matters
This study assessed disaster vulnerability across Istanbul's districts and proposed a risk reduction framework. It contains no information relevant to Alzheimer's disease.
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Study details
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 39/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Natural Hazards) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Natural Hazards: journal h-index 188 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 2 / 7 | Cited 11 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 3.7 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 5 / 6 | Cited 20.3× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 11 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 1 / 4 | Last-listed author Aydın Akpınar: h-index 5 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 0 / 3 | Marmara University: institution h-index 280 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 2 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 1 / 2 | Not in PubMed, but has a DOI |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 39 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Haksevenler, B. H. G., Şenik, B., ŞENGÜL, Z., & Akpınar, A. (2025). Assessing disaster vulnerability and proposing an adaptive disaster risk reduction framework: the case of Istanbul. Natural Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07308-x
Vancouver
Haksevenler BHG, Şenik B, ŞENGÜL Z, Akpınar A. Assessing disaster vulnerability and proposing an adaptive disaster risk reduction framework: the case of Istanbul. Natural Hazards. 2025. doi:10.1007/s11069-025-07308-x.
BibTeX
@article{haksevenler2025-7918274c,
author = {Haksevenler, Betül Hande Gürsoy and Şenik, Berfin and ŞENGÜL, Zeynep and Akpınar, Aydın},
title = {{Assessing disaster vulnerability and proposing an adaptive disaster risk reduction framework: the case of Istanbul}},
journal = {Natural Hazards},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-025-07308-x},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07308-x}
}