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Alzheimer disease in the US population: prevalence estimates using the 2000 census
Liesi E. Hebert, Paul A. Scherr, Julia L. Bienias, David Alan Bennett, Denis A. Evans. Archives of Neurology, 2003-08-01
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
CONTEXT: Current and future estimates of Alzheimer disease (AD) are essential for public health planning. OBJECTIVE: To provide prevalence estimates of AD for the US population from 2000 through 2050. DESIGN: Alzheimer disease incidence estimates from a population-based, biracial, urban study, using a stratified random sampling design, were converted to prevalence estimates and applied to US Census Bureau estimates of US population growth. SETTING: A geographically defined community of 3 adjacent neighborhoods in Chicago, Ill, applied to the US population. PARTICIPANTS: Alzheimer disease incidence was measured in 3838 persons free of AD at baseline; 835 persons were evaluated for disease incidence. Main Outcome Measure Current and future estimates of prevalence of clinically diagnosed AD in the US population. RESULTS: In 2000, there were 4.5 million persons with AD in the US population. By 2050, this number will increase by almost 3-fold, to 13.2 million. Owing to the rapid growth of the oldest age groups of the US population, the number who are 85 years and older will more than quadruple to 8.0 million. The number who are 75 to 84 years old will double to 4.8 million, while the number who are 65 to 74 years old will remain fairly constant at 0.3 to 0.5 million. CONCLUSION: The number of persons with AD in the US population will continue to increase unless new discoveries facilitate prevention of the disease.
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APA 7th
Hebert, L. E., Scherr, P. A., Bienias, J. L., Bennett, D. A., & Evans, D. A. (2003). Alzheimer disease in the US population: prevalence estimates using the 2000 census. Archives of Neurology. https://doi.org/10.1001/archneur.60.8.1119
Vancouver
Hebert LE, Scherr PA, Bienias JL, Bennett DA, Evans DA. Alzheimer disease in the US population: prevalence estimates using the 2000 census. Archives of Neurology. 2003. doi:10.1001/archneur.60.8.1119. PMID: 12925369.
BibTeX
@article{hebert2003-12925369,
author = {Hebert, Liesi E. and Scherr, Paul A. and Bienias, Julia L. and Bennett, David Alan and Evans, Denis A.},
title = {{Alzheimer disease in the US population: prevalence estimates using the 2000 census}},
journal = {Archives of Neurology},
year = {2003},
doi = {10.1001/archneur.60.8.1119},
pmid = {12925369},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1001/archneur.60.8.1119}
}
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Why it matters
Using incidence data from a Chicago community study applied to US Census projections, the authors estimated 4.5 million people with Alzheimer disease in the US in 2000, rising to 13.2 million by 2050. Much of the projected growth was among people aged 85 and older.
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How this study scored 51/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on strength of evidence, so that was left out: it earned 48 of the 95 points we could judge it on, which is 51 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Archives of Neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 3 / 4 | Archives of Neurology: journal h-index 353 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | — / 5 | No evidence rating recorded — left out of this score |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2003 — older than 20 years, still counted |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 7 / 7 | Cited 2,177 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 5 / 5 | 87.1 citations a year over 25 year(s) since 2003 |
| Impact for its field and year | 6 / 6 | Cited 68.0× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 3 / 4 | Cited 50 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Denis A. Evans: h-index 99 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 0 / 3 | Rush University Medical Center: institution h-index 670 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 2 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 12925369) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 48 / 95 | Scored on 19 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 48 of the 95 points we could judge it on is 51 out of 100. |
| Total | 51 / 100 | — |
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