Home › Research › Hippocampus size on brain scans
Combining early markers strongly predicts conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease
Devanand DP, Liu X, Tabert MH, Pradhaban G, Cuasay K, Bell K, de Leon MJ, Doty RL et al.. Biological psychiatry, 2008-08-23
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
Background The utility of combining early markers to predict conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) remains uncertain. Methods Included in the study were 148 outpatients with MCI, broadly defined, followed at 6-month intervals. Hypothesized baseline predictors for follow-up conversion to AD (entire sample: 39/148 converters) were cognitive test performance, informant report of functional impairment, apolipoprotein E genotype, olfactory identification deficit, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) hippocampal and entorhinal cortex volumes. Results In the 3-year follow-up patient sample (33/126 converters), five of eight hypothesized predictors were selected by backward and stepwise logistic regression: Pfeffer Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ; informant report of functioning), University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT; olfactory identification), Selective Reminding Test (SRT) immediate recall (verbal memory), MRI hippocampal volume, and MRI entorhinal cortex volume. For 10% false positives (90% specificity), this five-predictor combination showed 85.2% sensitivity, combining age and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) showed 39.4% sensitivity; combining age, MMSE, and the three clinical predictors (SRT immediate recall, FAQ, and UPSIT) showed 81.3% sensitivity. Area under ROC curve was greater for the five-predictor combination (.948) than age plus MMSE (.821; p = .0009) and remained high in subsamples with MMSE > or = 27/30 and amnestic MCI. Conclusions The five-predictor combination strongly predicted conversion to AD and was markedly superior to combining age and MMSE. Combining the clinically administered measures also led to strong predictive accuracy. If independently replicated, the findings have potential utility for early detection of AD.
Key findings
- Results In the 3-year follow-up patient sample (33/126 converters), five of eight hypothesized predictors were selected by backward and stepwise logistic regression: Pfeffer Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ; informant report of functioning), University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT; olfactory identification), Selective Reminding Test (SRT) immediate recall (verbal memory), MRI hippocampal volume, and MRI entorhinal cortex volume.
Study details
- Effect size85.2%; 39.4%; 81.3%
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 40/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 23 of the 58 points we could judge it on, which is 40 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Biological psychiatry) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2008 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 18723162) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 23 / 58 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 23 of the 58 points we could judge it on is 40 out of 100. |
| Total | 40 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
Free copy unknown: no free-copy check has an answer for this record yet. That does not mean it is paywalled.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Devanand, D. P., Liu, X., Tabert, M. H., Pradhaban, G., Cuasay, K., Bell, K., et al. (2008). Combining early markers strongly predicts conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease. Biological psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2008.06.020
Vancouver
Devanand DP, Liu X, Tabert MH, Pradhaban G, Cuasay K, Bell K, et al. Combining early markers strongly predicts conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease. Biological psychiatry. 2008. doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2008.06.020. PMID: 18723162.
BibTeX
@article{devanand2008-18723162,
author = {Devanand, D. P. and Liu, X. and Tabert, M. H. and Pradhaban, G. and Cuasay, K. and Bell, K. and de Leon, M. J. and Doty, R. L. and others},
title = {{Combining early markers strongly predicts conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease}},
journal = {Biological psychiatry},
year = {2008},
doi = {10.1016/j.biopsych.2008.06.020},
pmid = {18723162},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2008.06.020}
}