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One row per finding: what was tested, which way the result went, and how the study was built. The answer by area, and where the studies disagree, are on the main page.
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Showing 140 of 382 rows. One row per study per exposure: a study that tested two different things appears twice, once for each.
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| Exposure | Question | Direction | Outcome measured | Design | People | Effect size, as the source reported it | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amyloid PET Centiloid positivity threshold Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA threshold-derivation meta-analysis: it converges on 18 Centiloids (data-driven) and 27 Centiloids (visual reads) and flags 11-26 as a range to read with caution. It compares no exposure, so no direction exists to record. |
Centiloid cutoff for amyloid PET positivity (data-driven and by visual-read correspondence) | meta-analysis | 49,227 | The data-driven GMM approach identified a bimodal distribution in 51 studies (n = 48 786), resulting in a single cutoff for positivity of 18 Centiloids (95% CI,16-19; I2 = 97%). The double-cutoff approach revealed high confidence for interpreting scans as negative when Centiloid values were lower than 11 (95% CI, 9-13; I2 = 95%) and interpreting scans as positive if Centiloid values were higher than 26 (95% CI, 24-28; I2 = 95%) ... Centiloids were highly predictive of visual positivity (Cohen κ, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.89; I2 = 96%) with a cutoff of 27 Centiloids (95% CI, 24-30; I2 = 80%) |
JAMA
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42441390 |
| Amyloid and tau PET (appropriate use criteria) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyAppropriate use criteria rated by consensus: for amyloid PET seven of 17 scenarios were rated appropriate, two uncertain and eight rarely appropriate; for tau PET five, six and six. No effect estimate is reported. |
None measured (appropriate use criteria) | systematic review | not stated | not established — consensus criteria; the abstract reports scenario ratings, not an effect estimate. |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39776249 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher baseline plasma p-tau217 in cognitively unimpaired women: each SD increase more than doubled the hazard of MCI or dementia. Associations were larger in women over 70, APOE4 carriers and White women, and p-tau217 was not associated with incident MCI in Black women. |
Incident MCI or dementia over up to 25 years | cohort study | 2,766 | Every 1-SD increase in log2-transformed p-tau217 was associated with incident MCI or dementia (HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.18-2.71) and each individual outcome (MCI: HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.72-2.20; dementia: HR, 3.17; 95% CI, 2.79-3.61) |
JAMA Network Open
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41805953 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The estimated age at plasma %p-tau217 positivity predicted age at symptom onset (adjusted R2 0.337-0.612) with a median absolute error of 3.0-3.7 years, which the authors call acceptable for trials but not yet for individual clinical use. |
Predicted age at onset of Alzheimer's symptoms from plasma %p-tau217 clock models | cohort study | 603 | The estimated age at plasma %p-tau217 positivity was associated with the age at onset of AD symptoms (adjusted R2 of 0.337-0.612) with a median absolute error of 3.0-3.7 years |
Nature medicine
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41714746 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher baseline plasma p-tau217 in cognitively unimpaired adults: each SD raised the hazard of progression by 38%, and the very-high group had a 38% absolute 5-year risk of progression. |
Progression to cognitive impairment over a median 5.4 years; cognitive decline on the PACC | cohort study | 2,684 | Each 1-SD increase in baseline p-tau217 level was associated with an increased risk of progression to cognitive impairment (hazard ratio, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.30-1.46]), and the association remained significant after adjustment, including β-amyloid positron emission tomography scan Centiloids (hazard ratio, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.24-1.41]). Participants with high (1.1-2.4 SD) and very high (>2.5 SD) baseline p-tau217 had 24% (95% CI, 20%-28%) and 38% (95% CI, 33%-43%) absolute risk of progression over 5 years, respectively |
JAMA
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42449500 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher plasma p-tau217: each SD raised the hazard of incident cognitive impairment by 41%, more steeply in APOE-ε4 carriers (76%) than non-carriers (26%), with survival curves separating 3-4 years after the blood test. |
Prevalent and incident cognitive impairment (MCI or dementia) by plasma p-tau217 and APOE-ε4 status | cohort study | 8,582 | Higher p-tau217 concentrations at baseline were also associated with incident cognitive impairment (hazard ratio 1·41, 95% CI 1·22-1·64; for 1-SD increase of p-tau217 levels), with a stronger association in APOE-ε4 carriers (1·76, 1·36-2·26) than in non-carriers (1·26, 1·12-1·42). Each 1-SD increase in p-tau217 concentration was associated with a 24% shorter time to cognitive impairment among APOE-ε4 carriers, compared with 13% among non-carriers |
The Lancet. Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42716078 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Stand-alone plasma p-tau217 gave 81% accuracy and 79% PPV; confirming positives with PET or CSF raised both to 91% while cutting PET scans needed to find 100 amyloid-positive people from 536 to 124. Immunoassays matched mass spectrometry on PPV but had lower accuracy. |
Accuracy and positive predictive value for amyloid positivity (CSF or PET) in cognitively unimpaired people, stand-alone and in a two-step workflow | cross-sectional study | 2,916 | As a stand-alone test, plasma p-tau217 achieved a positive predictive value (PPV) of 79% (95% CI, 74-84) and an overall accuracy of 81% (95% CI, 80-82). In a 2-step workflow, the PPV and accuracy significantly increased to 91% (95% CI, 86-95). While this approach required screening of 677 individuals with plasma p-tau217 to identify 100 Aβ-positive individuals, compared to 536 participants when using PET alone, it reduced the need for PET testing to 124 |
JAMA Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40952756 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Combined plasma %p-tau217 and Aβ42/40 detected abnormal CSF amyloid status (AUC 0.949) and each predicted rising amyloid PET over time in people who started below the positivity threshold, replicated in two further cohorts; p-tau231 and GFAP added no clear independent value. |
Prediction of subsequent brain amyloid accumulation (PET/CSF) in cognitively unimpaired people with subthreshold amyloid | cohort study | 983 | a combination of plasma %p-tau217 and Aβ42/40 showed better performance (area under the curve = 0.949; 95% CI, 0.929-0.970; P <.02) than individual biomarkers ... longitudinal Aβ-PET (%p-tau217: β = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.48-0.87; Aβ42/40: β = -0.33; 95% CI, -0.51 to -0.15; %p-tau217 × Aβ42/40: β = -0.31; 95% CI, -0.44 to -0.18; P < .001) |
JAMA Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39068669 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. All four assays (Lumipulse, Johnson & Johnson, ALZpath, NULISA) gave statistically equivalent AUCs of 0.84-0.90 for amyloid positivity, with cross-platform correlations of 0.40-0.86. |
Cross-assay agreement and AUC for amyloid PET positivity across four p-tau217 immunoassays | cross-sectional study | 344 | All four p-tau217 assays exhibited moderate to strong cross-platform correlations (Spearman correlations of 0.40–0.86), and statistically equivalent AUCs (of 0.84–0.90) for determining Aβ positivity |
Alzheimer's Research & Therapy
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41652516 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyAn editorial reviewing the FDA clearance of the Lumipulse plasma ratio test. It relays performance figures from the FDA summary and other studies and reports no data of its own. |
None measured (editorial on the FDA clearance) | None | not stated | FDA approval was based on clinical evidence showing strong agreement between plasma test results and confirmation by PET or CSF testing, with over 90% consistency in those with positive findings. In contrast, these reference methods confirmed 97.3% of those with negative plasma results to be amyloid negative |
Annals of Medicine and Surgery
2026 ⚠ Editorial — not peer-reviewed research PMID 41675863 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyDirection is for the blood test's ability to detect treatment-related amyloid clearance on PET: AUC 0.61, which the authors call suboptimal and not currently usable for that purpose. It says nothing about the drug's effect. |
Detection of PET-confirmed amyloid clearance after donanemab (AUC at 52 weeks) | phase 3 trial | 830 | Plasma p-tau217 showed suboptimal performance in detecting TRAC by PET in donanemab-treated participants (N = 830), with an area under the ROC curve of 0.61 at 52 weeks |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42565262 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Among p-tau217-positive patients, a positive eMTBR-tau243 identified clinically established Alzheimer's disease with 81% accuracy and predicted faster cognitive decline and tau accumulation. |
Classification of established Alzheimer's disease by plasma eMTBR-tau243 among %p-tau217-positive patients | cohort study | 572 | 194 (55%) of 350 %p-tau217-positive patients were also positive for eMTBR-tau243, with an accuracy of 81% (95% CI 76-84), PPV 84% (95% CI 78-88), negative predictive value (NPV) 77% (95% CI 68-82), and sensitivity 82% (95% CI 76-87) for established Alzheimer's disease, in cross-sectional analyses |
The Lancet. Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41864233 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Subgroup-specific optimal cutoffs and a double-cutoff strategy both improved accuracy over the standard single cutoff, most markedly in chronic kidney disease (0.65 to 0.83) and anaemia. |
Accuracy of plasma p-tau217 for amyloid PET positivity under standard, subgroup-optimal and double cutoffs in people with kidney disease, abnormal BMI or anaemia | cross-sectional study | 2,571 | In the UGOT cohort, the optimal cutoff improved diagnostic accuracy compared with the standard single cutoff, particularly in CKD and anemia (CKD: from 0.65; 95% CI, 0.57-0.72; to 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.89; anemia: from 0.80; 95% CI, 0.76-0.84; to 0.86; 95% CI, 0.82-0.90), with consistent findings in the Roche cohort |
JAMA neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41627837 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe review's own summary points two ways: CSF biomarker tests were mostly cost-effective against cognitive assessment or imaging, while blood biomarker tests showed mixed results; every included study was model-based. |
Cost-effectiveness of CSF and blood biomarker testing for AD diagnosis across nine model-based economic evaluations | systematic review | not stated | not established — systematic review without meta-analysis; the abstract reports no pooled estimate. |
European Journal of Health Economics
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41385058 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe findings point two ways: the p-tau217/Aβ42 ratio tracked AD-related factors (MCI, AD dementia, future progression, age, APOE ε4) more closely than either marker alone and had few intermediate results, but it was also related to kidney function, diabetes and hearing loss, and medical morbidities were most frequent among intermediate classifications. |
Associations of plasma p-tau217, Aβ42/40 and p-tau217/Aβ42 with AD-related factors and with medical comorbidities (kidney function, diabetes, hearing loss) in a health-system biobank | cross-sectional study | 617 | not established — pubmed abstract reports no numeric effect size. |
Annals of neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41447112 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The prespecified APS2 cut point gave 91% accuracy, 90% sensitivity and 92% specificity against amyloid PET. |
Agreement with amyloid PET in an independent cohort (ADNI) | cross-sectional study | 191 | Concordance with amyloid PET was high (AUC-ROC 0.95 (95% CI): 0.93-0.98); 54% of participants had a positive APS2. The previously validated APS2 cut point yielded an overall accuracy of 91% (95% CI: 86-94%), sensitivity 90% (95% CI: 83-94%) and specificity 92% (95% CI: 84-96%) |
npj Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40917102 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217 detected amyloid PET positivity with 82% sensitivity and 86% specificity, comparable to CSF p-tau217; less sensitive for tau PET. |
Sensitivity and specificity for amyloid and tau PET positivity (pooled) | meta-analysis | not stated | Plasma p-tau217 showed 82% sensitivity for detecting amyloid and 83% for tau, with 86% and 83% specificity, respectively. CSF p-tau217 had 79% sensitivity for amyloid and 91% for tau, with 91% and 84% specificity |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39711334 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. AUC 0.93-0.96; accuracy 89-91% in secondary care and 85% in primary care, lower (83%) at age 80 or older; a two-cutoff approach raised accuracy to 92-94% at the cost of 12-17% intermediate results. |
Diagnostic accuracy for Alzheimer pathology (CSF-defined) in secondary and primary care | cross-sectional study | 1,767 | Plasma p-tau217 detected AD pathology with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.93-0.96. In secondary care, the accuracies were 89-91%, the positive predictive values 89-95% and the negative predictive values 77-90%. In primary care, the accuracy was 85%, the positive predictive values 82% and the negative predictive values 88%. Accuracy was lower in participants aged ≥80 years (83%) |
Nature Medicine
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40205199 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217 was the best-performing marker (88.1% sensitivity, 88.7% specificity, AUROC 91.1%, moderate certainty), ahead of p-tau181 and p-tau231; about 90% of studies were at high risk of bias. |
Pooled sensitivity, specificity and AUROC for biologically defined Alzheimer's disease | meta-analysis | 29,625 | Plasma p-tau217 was the highest-performing biomarker for identifying biologically defined Alzheimer's disease, with pooled sensitivity of 88·1% (95% CI 86·7-89·5, moderate certainty of evidence), specificity of 88·7% (87·4-89·9, moderate certainty of evidence), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 91·1% (88·9-92·4, moderate certainty of evidence), and diagnostic odds ratio of 50·7 (40·6-63·4). p-tau181 pooled sensitivity was 80·5% (78·4-82·4, low certainty of evidence), specificity was 76·4% (74·1-78·6, low certainty of evidence), AUROC was 81·5% (80·2-82·9, low certainty of evidence) |
The Lancet Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40818474 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The Pitt-p-tau217 assay separated PSEN1 carriers from controls (AUC 0.94) and amyloid PET-positive from -negative cognitively normal adults (AUC up to 0.84), equivalent to the ALZpath assay. |
Classification accuracy of a new p-tau217 assay against PSEN1 carrier status and amyloid PET | cross-sectional study | 363 | Pitt-p-tau217 differentiated neuropathologically confirmed PSEN1 mutation carriers from controls with area under the curve (AUC) = 0.94, and amyloid beta (Aβ) positron emission tomography (PET)-positive from Aβ PET-negative cognitively normal older adults with AUC up to 0.84, equivalent to ALZpath-p-tau217 results. Both Pitt-p-tau217 and ALZpath-p-tau217 were slightly elevated in tau PET-positive versus tau PET-negative participants. Between-assay correlations were up to 0.93 |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40665482 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA clinical practice guideline. It sets performance thresholds for blood tests (at least 90% sensitivity and 75% specificity for triage; at least 90% for both to substitute for amyloid PET or CSF) and reports no effect estimate of its own. |
None measured (clinical practice guideline) | systematic review | not stated | not established — guideline; recommendations rather than an effect estimate. |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40729527 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Performance varied widely across tests, from 49.3% to 91.4% pooled sensitivity and 61.5% to 96.7% pooled specificity at a single cut-point, with most studies at high risk of bias. |
Pooled sensitivity and specificity of 31 blood-based biomarker tests for Alzheimer pathology in cognitively impaired people | meta-analysis | not stated | the pooled sensitivity ranged from 49.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 41.2-57.4) to 91.4% (95% CI: 86.6-94.6), and the pooled specificity ranged from 61.5% (95% CI: 45.6-75.3) to 96.7% (95% CI: 87.8-99.2) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41193403 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. All p-tau217 tests detected abnormal amyloid PET (AUC 0.91-0.96) and tau PET (0.94-0.97); the mass-spectrometry %p-tau217 ratio was best (accuracy 0.93 versus 0.83-0.88 for immunoassays) and is proposed as a stand-alone confirmatory test, with immunoassays better suited to triage. |
Accuracy of five plasma p-tau217 tests for amyloid PET and tau PET status, benchmarked against CSF tests | cohort study | 998 | All plasma p-tau217 tests exhibited a high ability to detect abnormal Aβ-PET [area under the curve (AUC) range: 0.91-0.96] and tau-PET (AUC range: 0.94-0.97) ... For detecting Aβ-PET status, %p-tau217WashU had an accuracy of 0.93 (immunoassays: 0.83-0.88), sensitivity of 0.91 (immunoassays: 0.84-0.87) and a specificity of 0.94 (immunoassays: 0.85-0.89) |
Brain
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39468767 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The Lumipulse plasma p-tau217/Aβ42 ratio reached AUC 0.963-0.966 for amyloid PET and 0.947-0.974 for tau PET, equivalent to CSF tests and better than plasma p-tau217 alone, with fewer intermediate results. |
Diagnostic accuracy for abnormal amyloid PET and tau PET in a clinic and a community cohort | cross-sectional study | 512 | Plasma p-tau217/Aβ42 exhibited high performance for abnormal statuses of Aβ PET (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.963 to 0.966) and tau PET (AUC: 0.947 to 0.974) ... The p-tau217/Aβ42 ratio had a lower intermediate percentage than p-tau217 alone in both clinic (10.6% vs 13.0%) and community (16.5% vs 31.4%) cohorts |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40156286 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217/Aβ42 had the highest accuracy (0.88 in Black and 0.91 in White participants) and fewest intermediate results, with no difference in classification by race. |
Accuracy for amyloid PET positivity in people who self-identify as Black or White | cross-sectional study | 1,135 | In the test set, plasma p-tau217/Aβ42 had the highest accuracy (pBlack: 0.88, pWhite: 0.91) and lowest proportion of intermediate classifications (≤0.16), with no classification difference by race (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66-2.95, p = 0.33) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40801297 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for chronic kidney disease as a source of false signal: at eGFR 45 versus 60, p-tau217 was 31-55% higher in amyloid-negative people on two immunoassays, a rise largely removed by using the %p-tau217 ratio. A test-validity result, not a health outcome. |
Plasma p-tau217 concentration by kidney function (eGFR) in amyloid-negative and amyloid-positive people | cross-sectional study | 202 | For an eGFR of 45 vs 60 in the A- cohort, the calculated percentage changes were +31%, +55%, and +19%, for ALZpath p-tau217, C2N p-tau217, and C2N %p-tau217, respectively. For the A+ cohort, the corresponding calculated percentage changes were +17%, +15%, and -5%, respectively |
Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39823562 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217 identified symptomatic AD with 95% sensitivity and 82% specificity (86% with the Aβ42 ratio) and tracked CSF biomarkers closely (AUC 0.94-0.96); reduced kidney function raised levels in patients without AD. |
Sensitivity and specificity for symptomatic AD, and agreement with CSF biomarkers, in a tertiary outpatient memory clinic | cross-sectional study | 509 | Plasma p-tau217 distinguished patients with diagnoses of symptomatic AD with 95% sensitivity and 82% specificity. Integration of Aβ42 measurements (p-tau217/Aβ42) incrementally improved specificity (86%). Plasma p-tau217 and p-tau217/Aβ42 concentrations closely associated with established CSF biomarkers of AD (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.94 and 0.96, respectively) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40476540 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA price-threshold model: it estimates the test price at which diagnostic cost per true-positive case equals standard care ($290-$1,950 depending on use), and compares no actual price against it, so there is no direction to record. |
Value-based price of a blood test for AD pathology as a triage or confirmatory test in primary and specialty care, and projected reduction in PET/CSF use | modelling study | not stated | If used in primary care, the value-based price would be $290 for a triage and $1150 for a confirmatory test, respectively, as use of PET or CSF testing would decline by 47 % and 86 %, respectively. If used in specialty care, i.e., after confirmation of early-stage cognitive impairment, the overall number of blood tests would decline. Consequently, the value-based price would increase to $450 for a triage test and $1950 for a confirmatory test |
Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40494736 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The APS2 blood test reached AUC 0.96-0.97 and 88-92% accuracy, and its 91% accuracy for clinical AD beat primary care physicians (61%) and dementia specialists (73%). |
Diagnostic accuracy for Alzheimer pathology (CSF-defined), and for clinical AD versus physicians' assessment | cross-sectional study | 1,213 | the AUC was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95-0.99) when the APS2 was used, the PPV was 91% (95% CI, 87%-96%), and the NPV was 92% (95% CI, 87%-96%) [primary care, single batch]; Primary care physicians had a diagnostic accuracy of 61% (95% CI, 53%-69%) for identifying clinical AD after clinical examination, cognitive testing, and a computed tomographic scan vs 91% (95% CI, 86%-96%) using the APS2. Dementia specialists had a diagnostic accuracy of 73% (95% CI, 68%-79%) vs 91% (95% CI, 88%-95%) using the APS2 |
JAMA
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39068545 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. APS2 gave AUC 0.94 and 88% agreement with amyloid PET, with similar performance by ethnicity, sex, age and APOE4 status. |
Agreement with amyloid PET (brain amyloidosis) | cross-sectional study | 583 | The AUC-ROC for the PrecivityAD2 test output, the Amyloid Probability Score 2, was 0.94, yielding 88% agreement with amyloid PET |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38491912 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The ALZpath plasma p-tau217 immunoassay reached AUC 0.92-0.96 for amyloid and 0.93-0.97 for tau across three cohorts, comparable with CSF, and a three-range cut-off cut confirmatory testing by about 80%. |
Accuracy for abnormal amyloid and tau pathology (PET or CSF) and longitudinal change | cohort study | 786 | High accuracy was observed in identifying elevated Aβ (area under the curve [AUC], 0.92-0.96; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99) and tau pathology (AUC, 0.93-0.97; 95% CI, 0.84-0.99) across all cohorts. These accuracies were comparable with CSF biomarkers in determining abnormal PET signal. The detection of abnormal Aβ pathology using a 3-range reference yielded reproducible results and reduced confirmatory testing by approximately 80% |
JAMA Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38252443 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217 identified amyloid positivity with AUC 0.94; a two-cut-point rule sent only 17% for CSF or PET (sensitivity 0.94, specificity 0.86), and among amyloid-positive people it identified high tau load (AUC 0.92), potentially avoiding 56.9% of tau-PET scans. |
Identification of amyloid positivity and of high tau-PET load (to select candidates for anti-amyloid antibodies) | cohort study | 912 | plasma p-tau217 was most strongly associated with Aβ positivity (test-set area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97) ... This procedure had an overall sensitivity of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.98) and a specificity of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.77-0.95) ... At a false-negative rate less than 10%, the use of plasma p-tau217 could avoid 56.9% of tau-PET scans needed to identify high tau PET among Aβ-positive participants |
JAMA Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38048096 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA workgroup recommendations document. It sets target sensitivity and specificity for blood biomarker tests (≥90% / ≥85% for triage in primary care; ~90% / ~90% as a confirmatory test) and reports no data of its own. |
None measured (performance recommendations) | None | not stated | not established — recommendations document; the abstract states target performance thresholds, not an effect estimate. |
Nature Reviews Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38866966 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. A blood model of p-tau217, age and APOE ε4 (AUC 89.3% development, 94.3% validation) used to triage patients gave 88-92% overall accuracy while cutting confirmatory CSF tests by 61-86%. |
Accuracy for amyloid PET status and reduction in confirmatory CSF tests with a two-step plasma p-tau217 workflow | cohort study | 348 | Depending on whether lenient, moderate or stringent thresholds were used in step 1, the two-step workflow overall accuracy for detecting Aβ-PET status was 88.2%, 90.5% and 92.0%, respectively, while reducing the number of necessary CSF tests by 85.9%, 72.7% and 61.2%, respectively |
Nature Aging
2023 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 37653254 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau181) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for disclosing the blood panel during multidisciplinary meetings: median diagnostic confidence rose from 80% to 90%, though the suspected etiology changed in only 5% of patients and the syndrome diagnosis in 1%. Against CSF/PET, high- and low-probability results identified 76% of amyloid positives and 85% of negatives. |
Change in clinician diagnostic confidence and in syndrome or etiological diagnosis after disclosure of a plasma biomarker panel (p-tau181, GFAP, NfL) | cohort study | 450 | Median (IQR) diagnostic confidence in the total cohort increased from 80% (70%-90%) to 90% (70%-90%) after BBM disclosure (P < .001), increasing in 207 patients (46%), unchanged in 175 patients (39%), and decreasing in 68 patients (15%). Following BBM disclosure, syndrome diagnoses were revised in 6 patients (1%) and primary etiology was revealed in 23 patients (5%) |
JAMA Network Open
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42593792 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau181) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe results point different ways: diagnostic confidence rose 1.43 points, but diagnosis changed in only 17.2% and management in 27.7%, below the 30% threshold the investigators set as clinically significant; a non-elevated result reduced amyloid PET use, and patients with elevated results had higher anxiety at 2-3 months. |
Change in clinician diagnostic confidence, diagnosis and management after plasma p-tau181 testing in a memory clinic, and patient wellbeing (SUITABLE) | cohort study | 100 | Clinician diagnostic confidence averaged 1.43 points higher after p-tau181 testing (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02 to 1.84, p < 0.0001). After testing, 27.7% (95% CI 18.9% to 36.4%, p = 0.31) of patients had a change in management and 17.2% of patients had a change in diagnosis - significantly lower than the 30% threshold (95% CI 9.5% to 24.9%, p = 0.004) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia: Translational Research & Clinical Interventions
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42254757 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Mixed
whyThe findings point different ways: lower eGFR raised every blood biomarker except Aβ42/40 (a test-interpretation caveat), yet impaired kidney function did not itself raise dementia risk (HR 0.93), while the association between high NfL and dementia was about twice as strong in people with impaired kidneys. |
Blood AD biomarker levels by kidney function (eGFR), and incident dementia over a mean 8.3 years by kidney function and NfL | cohort study | 2,279 | At eGFR = 30 mL/min/1.73 m2, estimated differences were as follows: p-tau181: β, 0.22 [95% CI 0.09-0.35]; p-tau217: β, 0.20 [95% CI 0.10-0.31]; t-tau: β, 0.24 [95% CI 0.05-0.42]; NfL: β, 0.88 [95% CI 0.80-0.95]; GFAP: β, 0.10 [95% CI 0.03-0.16] ... impaired kidney function (eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) was not associated with an increased hazard of dementia compared with preserved kidney function (eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.93 [95% CI 0.72-1.21]). The relationship between increased (high vs low) NfL and dementia was stronger among individuals with impaired (vs preserved) kidney function (HR, 3.85 [95% CI 1.87-7.95] vs HR, 1.84 [95% CI 1.34-2.53], respectively) |
Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41337685 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the blood test's prognostic performance: plasma p-tau217 predicted cognitive decline and progression to MCI as well as tau PET (R2 0.33 vs 0.34; HR 1.57 vs 1.61), and using the blood test first cut the number needed to screen for a trial by 94%. A prognostic-performance result, not a health outcome. |
Prediction of future cognitive decline and progression to MCI: plasma p-tau217 head-to-head with tau PET | cohort study | 1,474 | plasma p-tau217 and medial temporal lobe tau-PET signal display similar associations with cognitive decline on a global cognitive composite test (R2PET = 0.34 versus R2plasma = 0.33, Pdifference = 0.653) and with progression to mild cognitive impairment (hazard ratio (HR)PET = 1.61 (1.48-1.76) versus HRplasma = 1.57 (1.43-1.72), Pdifference = 0.322) ... Sequential selection using plasma phosphorylated tau at threonine 217 (p-tau217) and then tau-PET reduced the number of participants required for a clinical trial by 94%, compared to a 76% reduction when using plasma p-tau217 alone |
Nature Aging
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40155777 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for abnormal baseline plasma p-tau217: people positive for both plasma amyloid and tau progressed to MCI at 7.8 times the rate of those negative for both, and tau-positive/amyloid-negative people at 4.3 times. CSF and PET gave similar results; adding plasma Aβ42/40 did not improve prediction. |
Progression to MCI over a mean 5.65 years (up to 10.5) by baseline plasma amyloid/tau status | cohort study | 215 | Cox proportional hazard models indicated a greater progression rate in A+T+plasma and A-T+plasma compared to A-T-plasma individuals (HR = 7.81 [95% CI = 3.92 to 15.59] and HR = 4.25 [1.60-11.31] respectively). Similar results were found with CSF (HR = 3.63 [1.72-7.70]) and PET (HR = 9.30 [3.67-23.55]) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40008832 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Mixed
whyThe two measures behaved differently: baseline plasma p-tau217 predicted later cognitive decline about as well as entorhinal tau PET (ρ -0.47 vs -0.55), but over time p-tau217 rose then decelerated and tracked concurrent cognitive change only weakly (ρ -0.24) or not at all in the PET substudy, whereas regional tau PET change correlated strongly with concurrent decline. |
Prognostic association with, and concurrent tracking of, cognitive change in preclinical AD: plasma p-tau217 versus tau PET | cohort study | 1,707 | Baseline associations with longitudinal change in PACC score in Aβ+ participants were strongest in the entorhinal cortex (correlation [ρ] = -0.55; 95% CI, -0.63 to -0.45) and plasma p-tau217 levels (ρ = -0.47; 95% CI, -0.56 to -0.37) ... Levels of plasma p-tau217 increased significantly in Aβ+ participants before showing significant deceleration (χ2 = 21.7; P < .001) and were not associated with concurrent cognitive change in the tau PET substudy (ρ = -0.03; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.16) but were modestly associated with concurrent cognitive changes in the full plasma sample (n = 1119; ρ = -0.24; 95% CI, -0.34 to -0.14) |
JAMA Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40853684 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher baseline plasma GFAP in cognitively unimpaired adults: it predicted faster cognitive decline, CDR progression, cortical atrophy and conversion to amyloid positivity, with stronger effects in females. |
Cognitive decline (PACC), CDR progression, AD-signature cortical atrophy and amyloid conversion over 240 weeks by baseline plasma GFAP | cohort study | 949 | not established — pubmed abstract results reports directions only (higher gfap predicted faster decline, cdr progression, atrophy and amyloid conversion) and prints… |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41268784 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher plasma pTau217: it was associated with global and domain-specific cognitive decline within both racial groups and discriminated 3-year dementia well (AUC 0.81 in Black and 0.77 in White adults); biomarker levels were similar across races and the association with decline was similar, though pTau217 tracked faster global and semantic memory decline in Black adults. |
Cognitive decline and 3-year dementia discrimination by plasma pTau217, GFAP, NfL and Aβ ratio in Black and White older adults without dementia | cohort study | 1,014 | between races, pTau217 was associated with a faster decline in global cognition (β = -0.03, SE = 0.012, p = 0.018) and semantic memory (β = -0.068, SE = 0.016, p < 0.001) in Black individuals. The discrimination of dementia by pTau217 (area under the curve [AUC]3-year, Black 0.81, 95% CI 0.74-0.89; AUC3-year, White 0.77, 95% CI 0.71-0.83) was good relative to age (AUC3-year, Black 0.69, 95% CI 0.58-0.79; AUC3-year, White 0.68, 95% CI 0.62-0.75) |
Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41151002 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for adverse biomarker levels: only the Alzheimer-specific markers measured in midlife (lower Aβ42:Aβ40, higher p-tau181) predicted dementia two decades later, while every marker measured in late life did, NfL most strongly (HR 1.92 per SD). Biomarkers changed faster in APOE ε4 carriers and with midlife hypertension or diabetes. |
Incident all-cause dementia by midlife and late-life plasma biomarker levels | cohort study | 1,525 | Only AD-specific biomarkers in midlife demonstrated long-term associations with late-life dementia (hazard ratio per SD lower Aβ42:Aβ40 ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.21; per SD higher p-tau181, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.25). All plasma biomarkers in late life had statistically significant associations with late-life dementia, with NfL demonstrating the largest association (1.92; 95% CI, 1.72-2.14) |
JAMA
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39068543 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for high serum NfL or GFAP: the top tertile of either raised incident dementia risk by 38-49% and roughly tripled dementia-specific mortality; being in the top tertile of both doubled dementia risk and raised dementia mortality nine-fold. NfL was independently associated with faster cognitive decline. |
Incident dementia and dementia-specific mortality over 19 years by serum NfL and GFAP tertile | cohort study | 1,712 | being in the highest versus lowest tertile of NfL or GFAP associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.49 (1.20-1.84) and 1.38 (1.15-1.66) for incident dementia, and 2.87 (1.79-4.61) and 2.76 (1.73-4.40) for dementia-specific mortality. Joint third versus first tertile exposure further increased risk; HR = 2.06 (1.60-2.67) and 9.22 (4.48-18.9) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2023 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 37392405 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for astrocyte reactivity: amyloid was associated with higher plasma p-tau only in people positive for astrocyte reactivity, and an AD-like pattern of tau-PET accumulation as a function of amyloid appeared only in those individuals, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. |
Association of amyloid with plasma phosphorylated tau and with tau-PET tangle accumulation, by astrocyte reactivity status | cohort study | 1,016 | not established — pubmed abstract reports no numeric effect size. |
Nature Medicine
2023 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 37248300 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for a rising serum NfL: its rate of change separated mutation carriers from non-carriers 16.2 years before expected symptom onset (versus 6.8 years for a single level), peaked around symptom conversion, and predicted cortical thinning and cognitive decline. |
Cortical thinning and cognitive change in presymptomatic familial Alzheimer's disease | cohort study | 405 | the rate of change of serum NfL could discriminate mutation carriers from non-mutation carriers almost a decade earlier than cross-sectional absolute NfL levels (that is, 16.2 versus 6.8 years before the estimated symptom onset) |
Nature Medicine
2019 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 30664784 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for microglial activation: amyloid was associated with astrocyte reactivity across cortical regions only when microglia were activated, and that microglia-dependent reactivity related to cognitive impairment through tau phosphorylation and aggregation. |
Astrocyte reactivity (plasma GFAP) in relation to amyloid PET and microglial activation PET, and downstream tau and cognitive impairment | cross-sectional study | 352 | not established — pubmed abstract reports no numeric effect size. |
Nature Neuroscience
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41198899 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The two-marker plasma model matched PET-based stages with a C index of 0.91 in both the derivation and validation cohorts, tracked clinical stage (C index 0.84-0.86) and aligned with autopsy ADNC (AUC 0.96), improving on %p-tau217 alone at the intermediate stage. |
Concordance of a plasma %p-tau217 plus eMTBR-tau243 staging model with amyloid/tau PET-based biological stages, clinical stage and autopsy-confirmed AD pathology | cohort study | 1,028 | A plasma-based model with %p-tau217 and eMTBR-tau243 was derived, which demonstrated high concordance with established PET-based stages (C index, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.90-0.92) and was associated with clinical stage within the AD continuum (C index, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.82-0.86). In the validation cohort, concordance with PET-based stages was high (C index, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94), as was concordance with clinical stage (C index, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.82-0.89) ... In the neuropathology subsample, plasma staging was strongly aligned with autopsy-confirmed AD pathology using the Alzheimer Disease Neuropathologic Change scale (area under the curve, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.91-1.00) |
JAMA Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42189519 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma Aβ42/40, p-tau217, p-tau181 and NfL classified AD with AUC 83% and FTLD with 88%, consistent across countries, rising to 89% and 95% when combined with neuroimaging patterns and cognitive measures. |
Discrimination of AD and frontotemporal lobar degeneration from controls by plasma AT(N) biomarkers in a multinational Latin American cohort | cross-sectional study | 605 | Classification models achieved receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve (ROC AUCs) of 83% for AD and 88% for FTLD ... Biomarker alterations combined with disease-specific neuroimaging patterns and cognitive measures further improved accuracy (ROC AUCs of 89% for AD and 95% for FTLD) |
Nature Aging
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41688826 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe three markers pointed different ways: plasma p-tau217 distinguished amyloid/tau stages, GFAP tracked amyloid-driven tau progression, and NfL was only weakly linked to Alzheimer pathology and, in the authors' words, inadequate as a neuronal injury biomarker for AD. |
Discrimination of amyloid/tau stages, tau progression, hippocampal atrophy and cognitive decline | cohort study | 1,275 | not established — pubmed abstract results reports no numeric estimate. the library had recorded "p-tau217 auc 0.959", which does not appear in the abstract and is not… |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41376134 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe result points two ways: p-tau181 gave the best AUC for separating AD from controls, frontotemporal dementia and amyloid-negative Lewy body dementia, but that discrimination could not be reproduced when pre-defined cut-offs were applied, so cohort-specific cut-offs were needed. |
Discrimination of AD from controls, frontotemporal dementia and Lewy body dementia by plasma Aβ42/40, p-tau181, GFAP and NfL, and transfer of predefined cut-offs to validation cohorts | cross-sectional study | 1,298 | not established — pubmed abstract results prints no auc or other figure; it states only that p-tau181 showed the best area under the curve and that pre-defined… |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40551285 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Serum GFAP tracked post-mortem tau pathology independently of amyloid, correlated negatively with brain weight and cognition, correlated with astrocyte reactivity in tissue, and separated neuropathologically confirmed AD from non-AD dementias with AUC 0.91. |
Correlation of serum GFAP with post-mortem tau pathology, brain weight and astrocyte reactivity, and discrimination of autopsy-confirmed AD from non-AD dementia | cohort study | 139 | an association between serum GFAP level and post-mortem tau pathology (β = 12.85; P < 0.001) that was independent of amyloid deposits (β = 13.23; P = 0.02) ... a negative correlation was observed between pre-mortem serum GFAP and brain weight at post-mortem (r = -0.35; P < 0.001) ... its discriminative power (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve at baseline = 0.91) in differentiating neuropathologically-confirmed Alzheimer's disease dementias from non-Alzheimer's disease dementias |
Brain
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38634687 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher baseline plasma GFAP: it detected abnormal CSF amyloid (AUC 0.79, 0.86 with APOE4) and predicted later conversion to Alzheimer's dementia (AUC 0.84); GFAP slopes were steeper in those who progressed. |
Detection of CSF-defined amyloid pathology and prediction of conversion to Alzheimer's dementia | cohort study | 160 | Baseline plasma GFAP could detect abnormal CSF Aβ42/40 and CSF Aβ42/T-tau with an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.72-0.86) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.86), respectively. When also including APOE ε4 status as a predictor, the accuracy of the model to detect abnormal CSF Aβ42/40 status improved (AUC = 0.86, p = 0.02). Plasma GFAP predicted subsequent conversion to AD dementia with an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI 0.77-0.91) |
Alzheimer's Research & Therapy
2021 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 33773595 |
| CSF alpha-synuclein seed amplification assay Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Results ranged from 55% to 100% sensitivity and 60% to 100% specificity across four laboratories using different protocols, with only fair agreement between them (kappa 0.246). |
Sensitivity, specificity and cross-laboratory agreement for dementia with Lewy bodies | cross-sectional study | 30 | On average, the 4 laboratories achieved 78.8% sensitivity (minimum 55%, maximum 100%), 77.5% specificity (minimum 60%, maximum 100%), and 78.5% accuracy (minimum 57%, maximum 100%) for discriminating DLB from controls ... A fair agreement of SAA results was obtained across the 4 laboratories (average κ = 0.246) |
Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41604609 |
| CSF alpha-synuclein seed amplification assay Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Smell testing followed by CSF seed amplification only in those with reduced smell predicted brain Lewy body pathology with 94% accuracy and cut CSF testing by 43%; in a living cohort it predicted CSF assay status with 79% accuracy. |
Accuracy for autopsy-confirmed Lewy body pathology and reduction in confirmatory CSF testing | cohort study | 1,567 | Among 358 autopsied participants, the two-step workflow predicted brain LBP with high accuracy overall (94%), and within clinical subgroups (clinical parkinsonism=95%; clinical Alzheimer's disease [AD]=94%; clinically unimpaired [CU]=93%). It reduced the need for confirmatory CSF testing by 43% overall (23% clinical parkinsonism; 35% clinical AD; 80% CU). In an independent in vivo cohort (N=1209), the workflow predicted CSF α-syn SAA status with 79% accuracy and reduced CSF testing by 26% |
Nature Communications
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40764485 |
| Caregiving itself (exposure to the carer) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA pooled prevalence among carers (50.8% lonely, 37.1% socially isolated) with no non-carer comparison, so no direction for the effect of caregiving can be recorded. |
Prevalence of loneliness and social isolation among informal carers | meta-analysis | 11,134 | The pooled prevalence of loneliness among informal carers of individuals with dementia was 50.8% (95% CI: 41.8%-59.8%), while the pooled prevalence of social isolation was 37.1% (95% CI: 26.7%-47.6%) |
International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38752797 |
| Caregiving itself (exposure to the carer) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyNo significant difference in 5-year cumulative spending between spouses of people with and without dementia ($3,974, 95% CI -$3,199 to $11,477); year-5 spending was higher (+$2,748), driven by inpatient costs. |
Spouse's cumulative Medicare expenditures in the 5 years after the partner's dementia onset | cohort study | not stated | This difference ($3974, 95% CI = [-$3,199; $11,477]) was not significant. However, there were significant differences in the 5th year's total expenditures (+$2,748 [$321; $5,447]), driven by inpatient expenditures ($1,562 [$22; $3,277]) |
Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38975882 |
| Caregiving itself (exposure to the carer) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for BEING a carer: carers were worse off than non-carers on every domain, with the largest gaps in depression and stress. |
Carer depression, stress, well-being and physical health | meta-analysis | not stated | Depression g=0.58; stress g=0.55; self-efficacy g=-0.54; well-being g=-0.40; physical health g=0.18 |
Psychology and Aging
2003 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 12825775 |
| Caregiving itself (exposure to the carer) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyOnly STRAINED carers were at higher risk (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.00-2.65, with the interval touching 1). Carers who reported no strain showed nothing (RR 1.08), so it is the strain rather than the caregiving that carries the signal. |
4-year mortality in the carer | cohort study | 819 | RR 1.63 (95% CI 1.00-2.65) for strained caregivers vs. non-caregivers |
JAMA
1999 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 10605972 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyBenefit was larger for younger, male and non-spousal carers. The largest single effect (training the person with dementia) rests on 10 observations and the authors call it promising rather than definitive. |
Carer anxiety and depression | meta-analysis | not stated | "Interventions generally showed a significant reduction in anxiety and depression with varied effects on SWB [subjective well-being]" across 175 studies and 342 intervention treatments |
Dementia and Geriatric Cognitive Disorders
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40550226 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyA pilot designed to test feasibility; 68 carers and a 2-week outcome. |
Pre-death grief at 2 weeks | randomised trial | 68 | Pre-death grief Cohen d = -0.38 (mean change -3.29, SD 8.64, p=0.03) at 2 weeks |
JAMA Network Open
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42018322 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDigital psychological interventions reduced caregiver burden and improved self-efficacy and quality of life; the effect on depressive symptoms was not statistically significant (P = .06). |
Caregiver burden (primary); depression, self-efficacy and quality of life | meta-analysis | 750 | digital psychological interventions significantly reduced caregiver burden [Standardized mean difference (SMD) = -0.21, 95% CI: -0.35 to -0.07; P = .003] and improved self-efficacy (SMD = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.15 to 0.61, P = .001) and quality of life (SMD = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.27 to 0.91, P < .001). But digital psychological interventions have no statistically significant in alleviating depressive symptoms (P = .06) |
Age and ageing
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41505195 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyNo difference from waitlist control on the primary burden outcome or on mood, WHOQOL-Bref or productivity; only the CarerQoL-VAS quality-of-life score was higher in the intervention group. The trial recruited 93 of a 194 target. |
Carer burden on the Zarit Burden Interview at 6 and 12 weeks (primary); mood, quality of life, productivity | randomised trial | 93 | No statistically significant differences were observed between the intervention and control groups on the ZBI, CES-D, WHOQOL-Bref and WPAI:CG ... A statistically significantly higher mean CarerQoL-VAS score was found for the intervention group (mean difference = 0.75, 95% CL: 0.25 to 1.24, P = .003) over 6- and 12-weeks, compared to the control |
Age and ageing
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41719424 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyAt the 1-month comparison the automated self-guided programme reduced depression and burden and increased positive gains versus waitlist; anxiety did not differ. Group differences mostly disappeared once controls received the programme. |
Caregiver depression (PHQ-9) at 1 month versus waitlist (primary); anxiety, burden and positive gains | randomised trial | 274 | At 1-month follow-up, coinciding with exclusive access to PDC30, intervention caregivers showed significant improvements in depression (d = -0.37), burden (d = -0.34), and positive gains (d = 0.42) |
The American journal of geriatric psychiatry : official journal of the American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41644333 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyPeer support reduced distress to behavioural symptoms and increased social support and quality of life immediately after the intervention, but had no effect on depression/anxiety, loneliness, burden or competence, and no outcome was sustained at follow-up. |
Caregiver distress, social support, health-related quality of life, depression/anxiety, loneliness, burden and competence after peer support | meta-analysis | 1,680 | Peer support interventions significantly reduced caregiver distress to behavioral symptoms (standardized mean difference [SMD], -0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.55 to -0.02; p = 0.03), increased social support (SMD, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.67; p = 0.02), and HRQoL (SMD, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.07 to 1.46; p = 0.03) postintervention. However, no significant effects were observed on depression/anxiety, loneliness, caregiving burden, and caregiving competence/knowledge postintervention. None of the outcomes showed sustained effects at follow up |
Archives of gerontology and geriatrics
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41690252 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyA factorial trial of components: the mindfulness component carried the benefit and amplified the others. |
Carer depressive symptoms (PHQ-9) at 12 months | randomised trial | 250 | Mindfulness component: PHQ-9 depressive symptoms β = -2.13 (95% CI -2.85 to -1.38) at 12 months |
JAMA Network Open
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40094667 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyBurden fell in both arms with no significant difference between the two platforms. There was no untreated control, so the within-arm improvement cannot be separated from time or attention. |
Caregiver burden at 6 months | randomised trial | 240 | Burden: GamePlan4Care effect size 0.50 (p<0.001); Resources4Care effect size 0.23 (p=0.030). Social support GP4C ES 0.21 (p=0.035); distress GP4C ES 0.30 (p=0.010) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41085219 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for NIDUS-Family: an 89% probability of cost-effectiveness from a health and social care perspective (87% societal) and £8,934 (37%) lower average costs, though the cost difference's confidence interval includes zero. |
Probability of cost-effectiveness at £20,000-30,000 per QALY and 12-month costs versus goal setting and routine care | randomised trial | 302 | At both a £20 000 and £30 000 decision threshold, there was an 89% probability that NIDUS-Family was cost-effective compared with usual care from a health and social care perspective, and an 87% probability from a societal perspective. Intervention participants accrued on average £8934 (37%) less in costs than control participants (95% CI -£59 460 to £41 592) |
The Lancet Healthy Longevity
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39978389 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyThe outcome is how prepared carers felt to decide about firearm access, not whether any injury was avoided. |
Preparation for Decision Making score | randomised trial | 500 | Preparation for Decision Making score +4.80 points (95% CI 0.53 to 9.07) vs control |
Annals of Internal Medicine
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39531391 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for psychosocial and pharmacological interventions, which the review reports as showing mild to modest efficacy in high-quality meta-analyses. A narrative clinical review summarising other meta-analyses, not a new pooled estimate. |
Caregiver burden | None | not stated | Psychosocial interventions include support groups or psychoeducational interventions for caregivers of dementia patients (effect size, 0.09-0.23). Pharmacologic interventions include use of anticholinergics or antipsychotic medications for dementia or dementia-related behaviors in the care recipient (effect size, 0.18-0.27) |
JAMA
2014 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 24618967 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyBenefit in Hispanic and White caregivers and in Black spousal caregivers; not in Black non-spousal caregivers. |
Caregiver quality of life and depression at 6 months | randomised trial | 642 | Depression: 12.6% (intervention) vs. 22.7% (control) at 6 months |
Annals of Internal Medicine
2006 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 17116917 |
| Carer psychosocial / skills intervention Care, carers and services | Treatment | Benefit | Time to nursing home placement | randomised trial | 406 | HR 0.717 for nursing home placement; median time to placement 557 days longer (model-predicted) in the intervention group |
Neurology
2006 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 17101889 |
| Cognitive screening instrument accuracy Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Tablet tests correlated strongly with MMSE, MoCA and Trails A (r > 0.7) and the Match test separated amyloid-positive from -negative patients (AUC 0.82) better than MMSE or MoCA (0.75). |
Correlation with pen-and-paper tests and discrimination of amyloid-positive from amyloid-negative early-onset AD patients | cross-sectional study | 475 | Match and Flanker were associated with all pen‐and‐paper tests, with strongest correlations observed with the MMSE, MoCA, and Trails A (r's >0.7) ... Of TabCAT tests, Match best discriminated Aβ+ from Aβ‐ patients (Area Under the Curve (AUC)=0.82), outperforming the MMSE (AUC=0.75) and MoCA (AUC=0.75), and comparable to the overall best performing test Benson Figure Recall (AUC=0.85 |
Alzheimer's & Dementia (AAIC 2025 conference abstract)
2025 ⚠ Conference abstract — not peer-reviewed DOI 10.1002/alz70857_104654 |
| Cognitive screening instrument accuracy Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Pooled sensitivity 76% and specificity 83% for dementia, with 73% / 84% in primary care; the authors call it a practical screening tool while noting high or unclear risk of bias in patient selection and timing. |
Pooled sensitivity and specificity of the Mini-Cog for dementia, MCI and cognitive impairment | meta-analysis | not stated | To detect dementia (six studies, n = 4772), the Mini-Cog showed 76% sensitivity and 83% specificity. To detect MCI (two studies, n = 270), it showed 84% sensitivity and 79% specificity. To detect CI (eight studies, n = 2152), it had 67% sensitivity and 83% specificity. In the primary care setting, to detect either MCI, dementia, or CI (eight studies, n = 5620), the Mini-Cog demonstrated 73% sensitivity and 84% specificity |
PLOS ONE
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38483857 |
| Cognitive screening instrument accuracy Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The two-stage GPCOG had sensitivity 0.85 and specificity 0.86 against DSM-IV dementia, and was superior to the Abbreviated Mental Test. |
Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of the GPCOG for dementia in general practice | cross-sectional study | 283 | The two-stage method of administering the GPCOG (cognitive testing followed by informant questions if necessary)had a sensitivity of 0.85, a specificity of 0.86, a misclassification rate of 14%, and positive predictive value of 71.4% |
Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
2002 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 11943052 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Mixed
whyThe two comparisons point different ways: overall utilization and payments were similar between amyloid-positive (A4) and amyloid-negative (LEARN) participants, but among A4 participants claims indicators of progression carried 45-103% higher payments. |
Healthcare utilization and Medicare payments in cognitively unimpaired amyloid-positive versus amyloid-negative people, and by claims indicators of AD progression | cohort study | 367 | 45% payment increase for cognitive impairment (p=0.035) with a mean incremental cost of $140 per person per month (PPPM) (95% confidence interval [CI] $125-$155), 66% payment increase for AD (p=0.011) with a mean incremental cost of $207 PPPM (95% CI $188-$226), and 103% payment increase for high frailty (p<0.001) with a mean incremental cost of $303 PPPM (95% CI $283-$323) |
Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41926844 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA cost estimate ($818 billion, 80% of it borne by families through unpaid care, earnings losses, out-of-pocket costs and quality-of-life losses) with no exposure compared, so no direction is recorded. |
Total cost of dementia in the United States in 2026 | modelling study | not stated | In 2026, 5.7 million (95% confidence interval [CI] [5.6, 6.0]) US adults aged 51 and older are living with dementia, supported by 5.2 million (95% CI [4.9, 5.5]) care partners. Total costs are $818 billion (B, 95% CI [759, 866]), driven by quality-of-life losses for persons with dementia ($320B, 95% CI [269, 363]) and care partners ($15B 95% CI [6, 25]). Unpaid care ($237B, 95% CI [220, 253]), earnings losses ($23B), and out-of-pocket costs combined with quality-of-life losses account for 80% of costs and are borne by families |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42340126 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA descriptive spending analysis with no exposure compared, so there is no direction to record: Part D spending rose with dual-eligibility duration, Part B drug spending varied widely by state, and ACO enrollment made only a modest difference. |
Medicare Part D and Part B drug spending and out-of-pocket costs among fee-for-service beneficiaries with dementia, by dual eligibility, state and ACO enrollment | cross-sectional study | 1,372,696 | Medicare Part D drug spending was substantial, increasing with dual-eligibility duration: $8732-$9107 among beneficiaries with full-year dual eligibility and exceeding $11 500 among those with 5+ chronic conditions ... Medicare Part B drug spending was highest among Medicare-only beneficiaries and varied widely by state, ranging from $433 to $1827 among Medicare-only beneficiaries and from $179 to $1446 among dually eligible beneficiaries |
Innovation in Aging
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42787606 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for having AD dementia: lifetime formal-care costs of 2,440,000 SEK against 510,000 SEK for matched controls, with prescriptions and social care rising and specialist outpatient visits falling as the disease advanced. A cost result, not a health outcome. |
Lifetime formal-care costs after an AD dementia diagnosis versus matched controls, and care utilization by stage | cohort study | 20,366 | The estimated lifetime costs of formal care for AD dementia were 2,440,000 SEK (€212,174; $US230,189; 95% CI 2,088,000-2,793,000 SEK), compared with 510,000 SEK (€44,348; $US48,113; 95% CI 482,000-539,000 SEK) for matched controls |
PharmacoEconomics
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41920501 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA cost projection: total burden is estimated at $344 billion in 2020 rising to over $3 trillion in 2060, with African American and Latino families projected to bear a disproportionate share. It compares spending shares between groups but tests no exposure, so no direction is recorded. |
Total US economic burden of dementia by race and ethnicity, 2020 to 2060 | modelling study | 31,028 | The total estimated economic burden of ADRD was close to $344 billion in 2020 and was projected to increase to over $3 trillion in 2060. African American and Latino adults bore one-third ($113 billion) of it in 2020, with projections rising to $1.7 trillion by 2060, surpassing the economic burden for White adults, which was projected to grow from $231 billion to $1.4 trillion |
JAMA Network Open
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40471578 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA cost estimate with no exposure compared, so there is no direction to record. Higher unpaid-care costs went with lower medical spending on nursing facility care. |
Annual cost of care attributable to dementia per case in 2019 and the unpaid-care share of total cost by US state | modelling study | not stated | The annual cost of care attributable to dementia in 2019 was $53,502 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46,135-60,594) per case. The contribution of unpaid care to total costs varied by state, ranging from 70.2% (95% UI 64.3-75.4) in the District of Columbia to 89.9% (95% UI 87.8-91.5) in Arizona |
Journal of Alzheimer's Disease
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40111940 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA cost projection with no exposure compared, so there is no direction to record. Dementia's share of replacement cost is projected to rise from 44% to 53%. |
Replacement cost of unpaid family care and opportunity cost of forgone earnings for older Americans with and without dementia, now and projected to 2060 | modelling study | not stated | Current annual replacement cost of unpaid family care is between $96 and $182 billion, 44% of which is accounted for by dementia caregiving. By 2060, it will increase to $277-571 billion, and 53% will be for dementia caregiving. The opportunity costs of forgone earnings and productivity loss, however, will grow faster, increasing from current levels of $107 billion and $26 billion to $380 billion and $102 billion, respectively, in 2060 |
Innovation in Aging
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40662057 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA cost estimate with no exposure compared, so there is no direction to record. |
Annual indirect cost of Alzheimer's disease per person by severity, and total US indirect cost | modelling study | not stated | $36 934 for mild cognitive impairment owing to AD, $65 565 for mild AD, $103 717 for moderate AD, and $145 250 for severe AD (2024 United States Dollars [USD]). Considering the current distribution of prevalent patients across severity stages, the total annual indirect cost was estimated at $832 billion, which includes $599 billion in unpaid caregiving costs and $233 billion in productivity losses |
Value in Health
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39571734 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for greater disease severity: mean annual costs rose from SEK 99,906 in MCI to SEK 795,617 in severe AD (SEK 57,625 to 668,073 in the amyloid-confirmed subset), driven by institutionalisation, home care and daytime support while outpatient costs fell. A cost result, not a health outcome. |
Mean annual direct medical and social costs by AD severity (MCI to severe), overall and in amyloid-confirmed patients, versus matched controls | cohort study | 95,853 | Mean annual costs for individuals with clinically diagnosed AD were SEK 99,906, SEK 290,972, SEK 479,524, and SEK 795,617 in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), mild, moderate, and severe AD. The mean annual costs for the population with both clinical diagnosis and amyloid-positive AD confirmation (N = 5610) were SEK 57,625, SEK 179,153, SEK 333,095, and SEK 668,073 in MCI, mild, moderate, and severe AD, respectively |
PharmacoEconomics
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39485581 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for being on the Alzheimer's continuum: societal costs were 52% higher in subjective cognitive decline, 170% in MCI and 307% in AD dementia than in controls, and payer costs 26%, 85% and 36% higher. A cost result, not a health outcome. |
Excess annual costs from payer and societal perspectives in subjective cognitive decline, MCI and AD dementia versus controls | cross-sectional study | not stated | From a payer perspective, costs were elevated by 26% for SCD (adjusted mean 5,976€ [95%CI 4,598-7,355€]), 85% for MCI (8,795€ [6,200-11,391€]) and 36% for AD (6,454€ [2,796-10,111€]) compared to controls (4,754€ [3,586-5,922€]). Societal costs were elevated by 52% for SCD (adjusted mean 8,377€ [95%CI 6,009-10,746€]), 170% for MCI (14,886€ [9,524-20,248€]) and 307% for AD (22,481€ [9,994-34,969€]) compared to controls (5,522€ [3,814-7,230€]) |
Alzheimer's research & therapy
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40571933 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA cost estimate and projection with no exposure compared, so there is no direction to record. |
Per-patient cost of care in 2016 and aggregate US cost projected 2020-2060 | modelling study | not stated | In 2016, the estimated per patient cost of formal care was $28,078 (95% confidence interval [CI]: $25,893-$30,433), and informal care cost valued in terms of replacement cost and forgone wages was $36,667 ($34,025-$39,473) and $15,792 ($12,980-$18,713), respectively. Aggregate formal care cost and formal plus informal care cost using replacement cost and forgone wage methods were $196 billion (95% uncertainty range [UR]: $179-$213 billion), $450 billion ($424-$478 billion), and $305 billion ($278-$333 billion), respectively, in 2020. These were projected to increase to $1.4 trillion ($837 billion-$2.2 trillion), $3.3 trillion ($1.9-$5.1 trillion), and $2.2 trillion ($1.3-$3.5 trillion), respectively, in 2060 |
npj Aging
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38331952 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA cost estimation across 204 countries with no exposure compared, so there is no direction to record. |
Global direct health care spending and informal care cost attributable to dementia, 2019, with projection to 2050 | modelling study | not stated | in 2019, the direct health care spending attributable to ADRD across 204 countries reached $260.6 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 131.6-420.4) and the cost of informal ADRD care was $354.1 billion (95% UI 190.0-544.1). On average, informal care represents 57% (95% UI 38-75%) of the total cost of care. We estimated that direct health care spending attributable to ADRD will reach $1.6 trillion (95% UI 0.6-3.3) in 2050, or 9.4% (95% UI 3.9-19.6%) of projected health spending worldwide |
Journal of Alzheimer's Disease
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39150827 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for being non-Hispanic Black or Hispanic rather than non-Hispanic White: disease-course Medicare spending was higher ($165,730 and $160,442 versus $136,326), highest for Black beneficiaries in every phase and driven by high-cost services in the last year of life. A disparities result, not a biological effect of race. |
Disease-course Medicare expenditures (year before diagnosis to last year of life) by race and ethnicity | cohort study | not stated | Adjusted mean total Medicare expenditures for non-Hispanic (NH) Black ($165,730) and Hispanic beneficiaries with dementia ($160,442) exceeded corresponding expenditures for NH Whites ($136,326) ... The last year of life was responsible for the greatest cost contribution: $51,294 (NH Blacks), $47,469 (Hispanics), and $39,499 (NH Whites) |
Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38504583 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for dying with dementia rather than heart disease, cancer or other causes: total cost was higher ($287,038) and out-of-pocket spending 81% higher, consuming 32% of household wealth versus 11%. |
Total social cost and out-of-pocket spending in the last 5 years of life | cohort study | 1,702 | Average total cost per decedent with dementia ($287 038) was significantly greater than that of those who died of heart disease ($175 136), cancer ($173 383), or other causes ($197 286) (P < 0.001). Although Medicare expenditures were similar across groups, average out-of-pocket spending for patients with dementia ($61 522) was 81% higher than that for patients without dementia ($34 068) |
Annals of Internal Medicine
2015 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 26502320 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for living in the community rather than a nursing home: unadjusted costs were lower in the community, but after adjusting for functional impairment and comorbidity community care cost €11,344 more per year, mainly through informal care. A cost result, not a health outcome. |
Annual societal cost of care, community-dwelling versus nursing home residents | cross-sectional study | 176 | Unadjusted mean annual total costs including informal care were €29,930 ($43,997) for community-dwelling patients and €33,482 ($49,218) for patients living in nursing homes. However, multiple regression analysis controlling for age, sex, deficits in basic and instrumental activities of daily living and comorbidity showed that living in the community significantly increased total costs by €11,344 ($16,676; P < .01) compared with living in a nursing home, mainly due to higher costs of informal care (+€20,585; +$30,260; P < .001) |
Journal of the American Medical Directors Association
2014 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 24321877 |
| Cost of dementia care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for having dementia: the attributable yearly cost per person was $41,689-$56,290 depending on how informal care is valued, a burden the authors call similar to heart disease and cancer. |
Yearly monetary cost per person attributable to dementia, and total US cost in 2010 | cohort study | 10,903 | The yearly monetary cost per person that was attributable to dementia was either $56,290 (95% confidence interval [CI], $42,746 to $69,834) or $41,689 (95% CI, $31,017 to $52,362), depending on the method used to value informal care. These individual costs suggest that the total monetary cost of dementia in 2010 was between $157 billion and $215 billion. Medicare paid approximately $11 billion of this cost |
New England Journal of Medicine
2013 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 23550670 |
| Cost-effectiveness of anti-amyloid antibody Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for value for money at current Australian prices: donanemab improved modelled QALYs (4.38 vs 4.01) but the ICER of $342,424 per QALY exceeded commonly cited willingness-to-pay thresholds. An unfavourable value result, not a clinical harm. |
Incremental cost per QALY of donanemab versus standard care in Australia | modelling study | not stated | Donanemab increased total healthcare costs ($300,689 vs. $178,121) and societal costs ($389,113 vs. $283,618) compared with standard care per capita, while improving health outcomes (4.38 vs. 4.01 QALYs) per capita. The ICER was $342,424 per QALY from the healthcare perspective and $294,701 per QALY from the societal perspective |
The Medical journal of Australia
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42015793 |
| Cost-effectiveness of anti-amyloid antibody Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA threshold analysis estimating what each country should be willing to pay (from $4-$18 a year in low-income countries to $254-$9,434 for lecanemab and $387-$13,964 for donanemab in high-income countries). It sets no price against an actual list price, so there is no direction to record. |
Incremental QALYs versus usual care and value-based annual prices for lecanemab and donanemab across 174 countries | modelling study | not stated | Compared to usual care, lecanemab and donanemab respectively increased average QALYs by 0.38 and 0.51. By country income status, VBPs for lecanemab and donanemab respectively ranged between $254 to $9434 and $387 to $13,964 (high income), $90 to $1025 and $137 to $1507 (upper middle income), $11 to $623 and $21 to $956 (lower middle income) and $4 to $18 and $9 to $32 (low income) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42125995 |
| Cost-effectiveness of anti-amyloid antibody Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe review splits by drug class: at $100,000 per QALY every study found memantine cost-effective and more than half found the cholinesterase inhibitors so, whereas aducanumab, lecanemab and donanemab were not cost-effective in any study. A value result, not a clinical harm. |
Cost-effectiveness of FDA-approved AD drugs across 23 published analyses (memantine, cholinesterase inhibitors, anti-amyloid antibodies) | systematic review | not stated | At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000/QALY, all studies found memantine cost-effective, and more than half reported cost-effectiveness for donepezil, rivastigmine, and galantamine. Aducanumab, lecanemab, and donanemab were not cost-effective in any study. Under the WTP threshold of $150,000/QALY, value-based prices for aducanumab, lecanemab, and donanemab were estimated below $5,960, $15,700, and $33,700, respectively |
Journal of Alzheimer's Disease
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41837605 |
| Cost-effectiveness of anti-amyloid antibody Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA cost-effectiveness model reporting ICERs of JPY 8.5 million and 7.9 million per QALY without stating a threshold or a verdict; the authors argue that narrow value assessments understate social value. No direction is recorded. |
Incremental QALYs (patient plus caregiver) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of lecanemab added to standard care in Japan | modelling study | not stated | The incremental QALYs were 1.31 QALYs for MCI due to AD and 0.85 QALYs for mild AD-D, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were JPY 8.5 million /QALY and JPY 7.9 million /QALY ($1 = JPY 150), respectively |
Journal of Alzheimer's Disease
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42108615 |
| Cost-effectiveness of anti-amyloid antibody Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for value for money: three years of lecanemab gained 0.17 QALYs and the cost-effective price at 1 million SEK per QALY was 33,886 SEK a year, which the authors say makes it unlikely to be cost effective in Sweden at current US list prices. An unfavourable value result, not a clinical harm. |
Life-years and QALYs gained and the cost-effective annual price of lecanemab in Sweden at 1 million SEK per QALY | modelling study | not stated | Treatment with lecanemab over 3 years resulted in 0.13 LYs gained, 0.17 QALYs gained, and a net cost increase of 87,146 SEK (€1 = 11.5 SEK, $US1 = 10.6 SEK) due to administration and monitoring, before considering the cost of drug. The cost-effective price of lecanemab at a willingness-to-pay level of 1 million SEK per QALY was 33,886 SEK per year of treatment |
PharmacoEconomics
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40730714 |
| Cost-effectiveness of anti-amyloid antibody Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for value for money at the current price: no lecanemab strategy was cost-effective against standard care alone, whichever diagnostic test was used; CSF-guided targeted treatment would become cost-effective below $5,100 per year. An unfavourable value result, not a clinical harm. |
Cost-effectiveness of lecanemab test-treat strategies versus standard care (cost per QALY) | modelling study | not stated | Neither targeted lecanemab treatment nor treatment unrestricted by APOE ε4 genotype was cost-effective vs SoC alone, regardless of the test used to diagnose patients with early-stage AD. However, CSF assay followed by targeted treatment would become cost-effective if lecanemab is priced below $5,100 per year |
Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38484190 |
| Cost-effectiveness of anti-amyloid antibody Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for chronic bi-weekly intravenous infusion relative to oral treatment: administration and monitoring cost $45,208 plus $6,095 caregiver burden, eroding 44% of treatment value, against 2% for an oral drug. A cost result for a hypothetical treatment, not a clinical harm. |
Direct medical cost, caregiver burden and preserved treatment value for five hypothetical disease-modifying treatments differing in route, frequency and duration | modelling study | not stated | Chronic bi-weekly infusion treatment had the highest direct medical cost ($45,208) and caregiver burden ($6,095), reducing the treatment value by 44%, while oral treatment with the lowest direct medical cost ($1,983) and caregiver burden ($457) reduced the treatment value by only 2% |
Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39350384 |
| Cost-effectiveness of anti-amyloid antibody Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for value for money at the list price: the benchmark price ($8,900-$21,500 per year) sits below the $26,500 list price, the committee voted 15-0 that the drug represents low long-term value at that price and 12-3 that the evidence did not adequately demonstrate a net health benefit. An unfavourable value assessment, not a clinical harm. |
Health-benefit price benchmark for lecanemab and appraisal-committee votes on net benefit and value | modelling study | not stated | ICER has calculated a health-benefit price benchmark (HBPB) for lecanemab to be between $8,900 – $21,500 per year; Lecanemab has been approved by the FDA and has a list price of $26,500 per year; The panelists unanimously (15-0) found that lecanemab at its current pricing represents “low” long-term value for money; A majority of panelists (12-3) found that current evidence is not adequate to demonstrate a net health benefit of lecanemab when compared to supportive care alone |
ICER (independent health technology assessment report)
2023 ⚠ Report — not peer-reviewed no DOI or PMID exists |
| Cost-effectiveness of anti-amyloid antibody Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for value for money at the assumed $28,000 annual price: ICERs of $981,000/QALY (aducanumab) and $193,000/QALY (donanemab) exceed the $150,000/QALY threshold, so neither was cost-effective. An unfavourable value result, not a clinical harm. |
Incremental cost per QALY versus standard care, and value-based price | modelling study | not stated | Health care sector and societal ICERs relative to standard care were $981 000/QALY and $964 000/QALY, respectively, for aducanumab and $193 000/QALY and $176 000/QALY, respectively, for donanemab |
JAMA Neurology
2022 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 35344024 |
| Cost-effectiveness of multidomain prevention programme Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Mixed
whyDirection is for value for money: APPLE-Tree had a 96% probability of being cost-effective per cognition point at a £30 000 threshold but only 12% on QALYs, which were slightly lower in the intervention arm. Post hoc subgroups suggested better value in non-White and socioeconomically disadvantaged participants. |
QALYs over 24 months (primary) and cost per 1-point NTB cognition gain | randomised trial | 746 | Mean adjusted QALYs were 1.511 (intervention) and 1.520 (control), an adjusted difference of -0.010 (95%CI -0.04 to -0.022). Mean adjusted (SD) costs were £2966 (3629) and £2551 (4439), respectively. Cost per 1-point NTB change z-score was £6809. At a £30 000 threshold, the probability of cost-effective was 12% and 96% based on QALYs and cognition, respectively |
Age and ageing
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42328805 |
| Cost-effectiveness of multidomain prevention programme Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for value for money: the intervention was modelled as dominant, saving JPY 452,826 per person and adding 0.08 QALYs over 35 years, with sensitivity analyses described as confirming robustness. A model extrapolating an 18-month trial. |
Lifetime costs and QALYs of the J-MINT multidomain intervention versus usual care (35-year model) | modelling study | not stated | Over 35 years, J-MINT was projected to achieve cost savings of JPY 452,826 per person and a gain of 0.08 QALYs |
The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41478834 |
| Dementia care management / navigation Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyThe community health worker programme achieved verified linkage to medical care in 16.7% of dyads versus none in the control arm. Caregiver outcomes were largely unchanged, with self-efficacy favouring control. |
Clinic-verified linkage to medical services at 6 months (primary); caregiver psychosocial outcomes | randomised trial | 287 | PLAN increased linkage to medical services versus control (16.7% vs 0%, chi-squared [df = 1] = 24.05, p < 0.001). Caregiver outcomes were largely unchanged, with self-efficacy favoring control |
Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42233272 |
| Dementia care management / navigation Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyNo difference between health-system care, community-based care or usual care on either primary outcome. Caregiver self-efficacy did improve in both active arms. |
NPI-Q behavioural symptoms and caregiver strain (co-primary) | randomised trial | 2,176 | NPI-Q difference health-system vs community 0.30 (97.5% CI -0.18 to 0.78); caregiver self-efficacy vs usual care +0.70 (health system) and +0.85 (community), both significant |
JAMA
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39878968 |
| Dementia care management / navigation Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the extended nursing role intervention: 74% fewer unmet needs and higher quality of life at six months, with a small QALY gain at about 1,425 EUR added cost; no effect on caregiver burden. |
Unmet needs, quality of life, caregiver burden and cost per QALY at six months (advanced dementia care management by nurses in extended roles) | randomised trial | 417 | PlwD receiving the intervention had 74% lower unmet needs (0.26, CI95%: 0.17 to 0.40, p < 0.001) and higher quality of life (0.04, CI95%: 0.01 to 0.07, p = 0.017) than controls. There was a gain in quality-adjusted life years (0.01, CI95%: -0.001 to 0.018) at slightly higher costs (1,425 EUR, CI95%: 638 to 2,211) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41143334 |
| Dementia care management / navigation Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe two perspectives disagree: the digitally supported care management system dominated usual care for the public payer (lower costs, marginally more QALYs, 72-79% probability of cost-effectiveness) but cost €331,000 per QALY from a societal perspective (33-35% probability). |
Caregiver QALYs, costs and incremental cost per QALY at six months, from public-payer and societal perspectives | randomised trial | 192 | Caregivers in the intervention group gained QALYs (+0.004 [95% CI -0.003 to 0.012], P value = .225) and had lower costs from the public payer (-378€ [1926-1168], P value = .630), but higher costs from the societal perspective (+1324 [-3634 to 6284], P value = .599). The intervention dominated usual care from the payer perspective, whereas the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €331 000/QALY from a societal perspective |
Value in Health
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39922302 |
| Dementia care management / navigation Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the Care Ecosystem programme: total cost of care was $475.80 per member per month lower than matched controls at 12 months, with fewer emergency, outpatient and professional visits. |
Total cost of care per member per month at 12 months versus propensity-matched controls | cohort study | 242 | Care Ecosystem participants had significantly lower total cost of care at 12 months, mean savings of $475.80 per member per month compared with controls |
American Journal of Managed Care
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39146484 |
| Dementia care management / navigation Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for collaborative dementia care management: fewer neuropsychiatric symptoms, lower caregiver burden, better mental health and 0.137 QALYs gained at no significant added cost (3186€ per QALY) over 36 months; no difference in antidementia drug use, overall quality of life or inappropriate medication. |
Neuropsychiatric symptoms, caregiver burden, quality of life and cost per QALY at 36 months after 6 months of collaborative dementia care management | randomised trial | 428 | Participants receiving CDCM showed significantly fewer behavioral and psychological symptoms (adjusted mean difference [AMD] in NPI score, -10.26 [95% CI, -16.95 to -3.58]; P = .003; Cohen d, -0.78 [95% CI, -1.09 to -0.46]) ... and lower caregiver burden (AMD in BIZA-D score, -0.59 [95% CI, -0.81 to -0.37]; P < .001; Cohen d, -0.71 [95% CI, -1.03 to -0.40]) ... The CDCM group gained QALYs (0.137 [95% CI, 0.000 to 0.274]; P = .049; Cohen d, 0.20 [95% CI, -0.09 to 0.40]) but had no significant increase in costs (437€ [-5438€ to 6313€] [US $476 (95% CI, -$5927 to $6881)]; P = .87; Cohen d, 0.07 [95% CI, -0.14 to 0.28]), resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of 3186€ (US $3472) per QALY |
JAMA Network Open
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38967926 |
| Dementia screening / case finding Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyNo benefit and no harm: screening did not change family-member quality of life, preparedness or self-efficacy, and did not raise depression or anxiety. Only 5.1% screened positive. |
Family-member quality of life (SF-36) at 24 months | randomised trial | 1,808 | 24-month SF-36 mental component difference 0.58 (95% CI -0.18 to 1.33), not significant |
JAMA Internal Medicine
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42008257 |
| Dementia screening / case finding Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyThe outcome is how many diagnoses were made, not whether anyone was better off. The passive digital marker alone did not raise detection (AOR 0.84, 95% CI 0.63-1.11). |
New dementia diagnosis within 12 months | randomised trial | 5,325 | Adjusted OR for new dementia diagnosis 1.31 (95% CI 1.05-1.64) with QDRS plus passive digital marker vs usual care |
JAMA Network Open
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41212562 |
| Dementia screening / case finding Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyMCI was diagnosed sooner (HR 1.21) but dementia diagnosis barely moved (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06). The outcome is detection, not health. |
Timeliness of first MCI and dementia diagnosis | cohort study | 549,516 | MCI diagnosis HR 1.21 (95% CI 1.16-1.27); dementia diagnosis HR 1.04 (95% CI 1.02-1.06) after an Annual Wellness Visit |
JAMA Network Open
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39378037 |
| Diagnostic criteria / biological definition of Alzheimer's Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA criteria document. It defines Alzheimer's disease biologically and sets out staging, and reports no effect estimate. |
None measured (diagnostic criteria document) | None | not stated | not established — criteria document; it states definitions and reports no effect estimate. |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38934362 |
| Diagnostic criteria / biological definition of Alzheimer's Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyAn editorial. It argues that biomarker positivity alone should not define Alzheimer's disease in people without symptoms, and reports no data of its own. |
None measured (editorial) | None | not stated | not established — editorial read in full at jpreventionalzheimer.com; pubmed carries no abstract for it and it reports no effect estimate. |
The Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease
2024 ⚠ Editorial — not peer-reviewed research PMID 39044499 |
| Diagnostic criteria / biological definition of Alzheimer's Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA research framework defining Alzheimer's disease by biomarkers (the AT(N) system) for research use. It states its own intended limits and reports no effect estimate. |
None measured (research framework) | None | not stated | not established — framework document; the abstract reports no effect estimate. |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2018 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 29653606 |
| Diagnostic evaluation and disclosure guideline Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyConsensus guidance for primary care on disclosing and communicating a dementia diagnosis, developed with patients, care partners and clinicians. It reports no effect estimate. |
None measured (consensus guidance on disclosing a dementia diagnosis) | None | not stated | not established — guidance document; the abstract reports no effect estimate. |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41085169 |
| Diagnostic evaluation and disclosure guideline Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA clinical practice guideline. It sets out a structured, patient-centred process for evaluating, diagnosing and disclosing suspected Alzheimer's disease or related dementias in any practice setting, and reports no effect estimate. |
None measured (clinical practice guideline for primary care) | systematic review | not stated | not established — guideline; the abstract reports no effect estimate. |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39713942 |
| Glymphatic function (MRI DTI-ALPS index) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for a lower (worse) glymphatic index: it was lowest in AD dementia and predicted faster amyloid accumulation, amyloid-positive transition, atrophy, clinical progression and cognitive decline, with the cognitive effect fully mediated by amyloid PET and atrophy. |
Amyloid PET accumulation, amyloid-positive transition, atrophy, clinical progression and cognitive decline by baseline DTI-ALPS index | cohort study | 419 | not established — pubmed abstract reports no numeric effect size. |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38501315 |
| Health-system and payment model Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyDifference-in-differences around ACO entry found no change in end-of-life care processes, outcomes or spending. |
Hospice use and end-of-life spending | cohort study | 162,034 | Hospice use difference -0.4 percentage points (95% CI -1.4 to 0.5); last-6-months spending -$632 (95% CI -$1,377 to $113) |
JAMA Health Forum
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40343716 |
| Health-system and payment model Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA single-programme implementation report with no comparison group. It counts enrolment and service use and estimates no effect. |
Enrolment, respite use and disenrolment in the first year of one GUIDE programme | cohort study | 158 | Over 35% of eligible beneficiaries have utilized respite services. Approximately 9% have disenrolled, the majority (64%) expired/hospice |
Innovation in Aging (GSA 2025 conference abstract)
2025 ⚠ Conference abstract — not peer-reviewed DOI 10.1093/geroni/igaf122.3561 |
| Health-system and payment model Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyImplementation guidance drawn from six earlier comprehensive dementia care programmes. It reports no effect estimate of its own. |
None measured (implementation guidance) | None | not stated | not established — guidance article; the abstract reports no data. the library's "up to 20% of emergency department visits ... avoidable" is a cited statistic not in… |
Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41170936 |
| Health-system and payment model Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the benefit redesign: projected out-of-pocket drug spending fell 55% ($56 to $25) for low-income-subsidy beneficiaries and 25% ($772 to $576) for others, with larger reductions for people with 6-8 comorbidities. |
Simulated annual out-of-pocket drug spending for Medicare beneficiaries with dementia under the 2025 Part D cost-sharing rules | modelling study | 1,677 | we project average annual OOP drug expenditures among LIS beneficiaries with dementia to decrease from $56 to $25-representing a $31, or 55%, reduction. In contrast, among non-LIS beneficiaries, average OOP drug expenditures is projected to decrease from $772 to $576, a $196, or 25% reduction |
Value in Health
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39880200 |
| Hospital admission after an emergency department visit Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyAdmission showed no evidence of an effect on 30-day mortality or subsequent inpatient days, but raised 30-day health care spending by $2547. An instrumental-variable estimate for marginal admissions. |
30- and 90-day mortality, inpatient days and health care spending after hospital admission versus discharge | cohort study | 872,085 | There was no evidence that hospital admission was associated with 30-day mortality rate (adjusted risk difference, -2.6 percentage points [pp] [95% CI, -5.2 to 0.1 pp]) or inpatient days (adjusted difference, 0.1 days [CI, -0.2 to 0.5 days]). Hospital admission was associated with higher 30-day health care spending (adjusted difference, $2547 [CI, $1390 to $3703]) |
Annals of internal medicine
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42258826 |
| Lewy body co-pathology (CSF seed amplification) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for co-existing Lewy body pathology in people with Alzheimer pathology: worse baseline cognition, faster global cognitive decline and more posterior hypometabolism than Alzheimer pathology alone. The seed amplification assay itself agreed closely with autopsy (96.3% sensitivity, 96.4% specificity in 61 cases). |
Baseline cognition, rate of global cognitive decline and cortical hypometabolism in people with Alzheimer pathology | cohort study | 795 | 184 (23.1%) had no biomarker evidence of AD/LB pathology, 39 (4.9%) had isolated LB pathology (AD-LB+), 395 (49.7%) had only AD pathology (AD+LB-), and 177 (22.3%) had both pathologies (AD+LB+) ... Neuropathological examination (n = 61) showed high sensitivity (26/27, 96.3%) and specificity (27/28, 96.4%) of the SAA-test |
Nature Communications
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39277604 |
| MRI amygdalar atrophy scale (marker of LATE) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA classification-validation study without a neuropathological reference standard, so accuracy cannot be judged. The groups behaved as expected: patients labelled LATE had mild amnestic impairment, limbic atrophy and stable MMSE over 30 months, while AD and AD/LATE groups declined. |
Clinical, imaging and 30-month cognitive profiles of memory-clinic patients classified as LATE, AD, AD/LATE or neither by the amygdalar atrophy scale plus AD biomarkers | cohort study | 469 | the LATE group maintained cognitive stability as the No-AD/No-LATE group (β = -0.010, 95% CI -0.096 to 0.075, p = 0.813), whereas both AD (β = -0.136, 95% CI -0.184 to -0.088, p < 0.001) and AD/LATE (β = -0.139, 95% CI -0.196 to -0.082, p < 0.001) groups showed faster decline over time |
Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41428981 |
| Naturalistic driving behaviour (digital marker of MCI) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Driving features distinguished drivers with MCI from those with normal cognition (AUC 0.82), rising to 0.87 with demographics, APOE4 and cognition; drivers with MCI showed greater declines in trip frequency, night driving and route variety. |
Discrimination of MCI from normal cognition by daily driving features, and longitudinal change in driving | cohort study | 298 | Key features such as medium trip distance, speeding events, entropy, and maximum distance distinguished drivers with MCI from those with NC (area under the curve [AUC] 0.82, 95% CI 0.75-0.89). Adding demographics, APOE ε4, and cognitive composite improved AUC to 0.87 (95% CI 0.81-0.93) |
Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41296993 |
| Palliative / advance care planning Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyAdvance care planning strongly increased DNR documentation (OR 14.12) but did not change whether residents died in the nursing home (OR 1.62, 95% CI 0.72-3.66). Evidence on other end-of-life outcomes was limited and inconsistent, and no study came from a non-Western setting. |
Do-not-resuscitate documentation; place of death | meta-analysis | not stated | DNR documentation OR 14.12 (95% CI 3.95-50.47); nursing home death OR 1.62 (95% CI 0.72-3.66, not significant) |
Journal of the American Medical Directors Association
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41198038 |
| Palliative / advance care planning Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyThe primary outcome did not improve. Emergency department visits and hospitalisations were lower (RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.31-0.65), which is a secondary outcome. |
NPI-Q neuropsychiatric symptom severity at 24 months (primary) | randomised trial | 201 | ED visits + hospitalisations: RR 0.45 (95% CI 0.31-0.65); NPI-Q severity difference -0.24 (95% CI -2.33 to 1.84, not significant) |
JAMA
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39878993 |
| Palliative / advance care planning Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA Delphi consensus among 60 international expert panellists, reaching agreement on 15 major and 42 minor referral criteria. No patient outcome is measured and no effect is estimated. |
Consensus referral criteria for specialist palliative care (no patient outcome) | cross-sectional study | 60 | not established — delphi survey; the abstract reports consensus counts (15 major, 42 minor criteria), not an effect estimate. |
JAMA Network Open
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40366652 |
| Plasma complement factors (candidate blood markers) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for the AD-associated complement pattern: age-related falls in C4, C4b, Factor I and Properdin and rises in Factor D were more pronounced in people who later developed AD, detectable in the preclinical phase, and the same profile was specific to AD among dementia subtypes. |
Ten-year trajectories of 14 plasma complement factors with ageing and before AD onset, and specificity of the pattern versus other dementias | cohort study | 558 | not established — pubmed abstract reports no numeric effect size. |
Molecular Neurodegeneration
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41526986 |
| Plasma proteomics diagnostic model (ProtAIDe-Dx) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Cross-validated balanced accuracy of 70-95% and AUC above 78% across the six conditions; the model is a development-stage tool with one external memory-clinic validation sample. |
Classification accuracy for six dementia-associated conditions from plasma proteomics | cross-sectional study | 17,187 | ProtAIDe-Dx achieves cross-validated balanced classification accuracy of 70-95% and area under the curve of >78% across all conditions |
Nature medicine
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41917159 |
| Prognosis after dementia diagnosis (survival, nursing home admission) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA prognosis meta-analysis: it pools time to death and to nursing home admission and compares no exposure. Women's shorter survival was attributable to later age at diagnosis. |
Median survival and time to nursing home admission after diagnosis | meta-analysis | 5,553,960 | Median survival from diagnosis appeared to be strongly dependent on age, ranging from 8.9 years at mean age 60 for women to 2.2 years at mean age 85 for men ... Median time to nursing home admission was 3.3 years (interquartile range 1.9 to 4.0). 13% of people were admitted in the first year after diagnosis, increasing to 57% at five years |
BMJ
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39778977 |
| Respite care Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyThree trials comparing respite with no respite found no significant benefit on any carer outcome; the four included trials were too different to pool. |
Carer burden and institutionalisation | systematic review | 753 | No significant benefit found on any caregiver outcome |
Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews
2014 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 24435941 |
| Safety / firearm decision aid Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyThe outcome is how prepared carers felt to decide about firearm access, not whether any injury was avoided. |
Preparation for Decision Making score | randomised trial | 500 | Preparation for Decision Making score +4.80 points (95% CI 0.53 to 9.07) vs control |
Annals of Internal Medicine
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39531391 |
| Sleep EEG brain age index (digital marker) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for an older-than-chronological sleep EEG brain age: each 10-year increase in the index was associated with a 39% higher risk of incident dementia, consistent across sex and age groups. |
Incident dementia per 10-year increase in sleep-EEG brain age index | meta-analysis | 7,105 | each 10-year increase in BAI was associated with a 39% higher risk of incident dementia (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39 [95% CI, 1.21-1.59]; P < .001) after adjustment for covariates. These associations remained after additional adjustment for comorbidities and apnea-hypopnea index scores (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.14-1.50]; P < .001) and apolipoprotein E ε4 (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.02-1.45]; P = .03) |
JAMA network open
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41854616 |
| Sleep intervention for carers/dyads Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for DREAMS START against treatment as usual: a 78% probability of being cost-effective at £20,000 per QALY, with cost and QALY differences individually non-significant. The clinical sleep result is in the table under its own row. |
Cost per QALY gained (within-trial cost-utility) | randomised trial | 377 | The mean incremental difference in QALYs per person with dementia was 0·016 more (95% CI 0·000 to 0·033) for the intervention group than for the TAU group, indicating no significant difference in quality of life. At a £20 000 per QALY gained decision threshold, there was a 78% probability that DREAMS START is cost-effective, compared with TAU |
The Lancet Healthy Longevity
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40412418 |
| Sleep intervention for carers/dyads Care, carers and services | Treatment | Benefit | Sleep Disorders Inventory at 8 months | randomised trial | 377 | Adjusted mean difference in Sleep Disorders Inventory at 8 months: -4.70 (95% CI -7.65 to -1.74) |
The Lancet Healthy Longevity
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39366393 |
| Tau PET imaging (natural history of tau) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for amyloid: it induced hyperconnectivity from tau epicentres to posterior tau-vulnerable regions, present already in preclinical AD, and this hyperconnectivity mediated amyloid's effect on faster tau accumulation. |
Amyloid-related functional hyperconnectivity of temporal-lobe tau epicentres, and its mediation of amyloid's effect on longitudinal tau accumulation | cohort study | 609 | not established — pubmed abstract reports no numeric effect size. |
Science Translational Medicine
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39841807 |
| Tau PET imaging (natural history of tau) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for greater spatial extent of tau: it tracked memory in unimpaired people and executive function in MCI and dementia better than a temporal meta-ROI, and tau spread fastest in unimpaired and MCI participants. Most amyloid-positive participants followed Braak staging, with substantial regional heterogeneity within each stage. |
Spatial extent of abnormal tau over time and its association with cognition | cohort study | 832 | More than 80% of amyloid-beta positive participants across diagnostic groups followed typical Braak staging, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Within each Braak stage, however, the pattern of abnormality demonstrated significant heterogeneity such that the overlap of abnormal regions across participants averaged less than 50% ... Accumulation of tau progressed more rapidly among cognitively unimpaired and participants with mild cognitive impairment (1.2 newly abnormal regions per year) compared to participants with Alzheimer's disease dementia (less than 1 newly abnormal region per year) |
Brain Communications
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38410618 |
| Tau PET imaging (natural history of tau) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for regional tau burden: more tau went with less glucose metabolism (r = -0.49) and with worse domain-specific cognition, while amyloid was diffuse and only weakly related. An imaging association, not an exposure effect. |
Regional glucose hypometabolism and domain-specific cognitive deficits | cross-sectional study | 35 | there was a strong negative association between (18)F-AV1451 and (18)F-FDG uptake (Pearson's r = -0.49 ± 0.07, P < 0.001) and less pronounced positive associations between (11)C-PiB and (18)F-FDG (Pearson's r = 0.16 ± 0.09, P < 0.001) and (18)F-AV1451 and (11)C-PiB (Pearson's r = 0.18 ± 0.09, P < 0.001) |
Brain
2016 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 26962052 |
| Undiagnosed or delayed diagnosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for going undiagnosed. Whether the diagnosis itself would change survival is not tested here. |
4-year mortality | cohort study | 13,142 | 45.1% (US) and 76.1% (Brazil) of dementia cases undiagnosed; the abstract states undiagnosed dementia was associated with increased 4-year mortality compared with no dementia in both countries, without giving a hazard ratio |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42056069 |