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One row per finding: what was tested, which way the result went, and how the study was built. The answer by area, and where the studies disagree, are on the main page.
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Showing 140 of 382 rows. One row per study per exposure: a study that tested two different things appears twice, once for each.
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| Exposure | Question | Direction | Outcome measured | Design | People | Effect size, as the source reported it | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amyloid PET Centiloid positivity threshold Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA threshold-derivation meta-analysis: it converges on 18 Centiloids (data-driven) and 27 Centiloids (visual reads) and flags 11-26 as a range to read with caution. It compares no exposure, so no direction exists to record. |
Centiloid cutoff for amyloid PET positivity (data-driven and by visual-read correspondence) | meta-analysis | 49,227 | The data-driven GMM approach identified a bimodal distribution in 51 studies (n = 48 786), resulting in a single cutoff for positivity of 18 Centiloids (95% CI,16-19; I2 = 97%). The double-cutoff approach revealed high confidence for interpreting scans as negative when Centiloid values were lower than 11 (95% CI, 9-13; I2 = 95%) and interpreting scans as positive if Centiloid values were higher than 26 (95% CI, 24-28; I2 = 95%) ... Centiloids were highly predictive of visual positivity (Cohen κ, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.89; I2 = 96%) with a cutoff of 27 Centiloids (95% CI, 24-30; I2 = 80%) |
JAMA
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42441390 |
| Amyloid and tau PET (appropriate use criteria) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyAppropriate use criteria rated by consensus: for amyloid PET seven of 17 scenarios were rated appropriate, two uncertain and eight rarely appropriate; for tau PET five, six and six. No effect estimate is reported. |
None measured (appropriate use criteria) | systematic review | not stated | not established — consensus criteria; the abstract reports scenario ratings, not an effect estimate. |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39776249 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher baseline plasma p-tau217 in cognitively unimpaired women: each SD increase more than doubled the hazard of MCI or dementia. Associations were larger in women over 70, APOE4 carriers and White women, and p-tau217 was not associated with incident MCI in Black women. |
Incident MCI or dementia over up to 25 years | cohort study | 2,766 | Every 1-SD increase in log2-transformed p-tau217 was associated with incident MCI or dementia (HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.18-2.71) and each individual outcome (MCI: HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.72-2.20; dementia: HR, 3.17; 95% CI, 2.79-3.61) |
JAMA Network Open
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41805953 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The estimated age at plasma %p-tau217 positivity predicted age at symptom onset (adjusted R2 0.337-0.612) with a median absolute error of 3.0-3.7 years, which the authors call acceptable for trials but not yet for individual clinical use. |
Predicted age at onset of Alzheimer's symptoms from plasma %p-tau217 clock models | cohort study | 603 | The estimated age at plasma %p-tau217 positivity was associated with the age at onset of AD symptoms (adjusted R2 of 0.337-0.612) with a median absolute error of 3.0-3.7 years |
Nature medicine
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41714746 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher baseline plasma p-tau217 in cognitively unimpaired adults: each SD raised the hazard of progression by 38%, and the very-high group had a 38% absolute 5-year risk of progression. |
Progression to cognitive impairment over a median 5.4 years; cognitive decline on the PACC | cohort study | 2,684 | Each 1-SD increase in baseline p-tau217 level was associated with an increased risk of progression to cognitive impairment (hazard ratio, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.30-1.46]), and the association remained significant after adjustment, including β-amyloid positron emission tomography scan Centiloids (hazard ratio, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.24-1.41]). Participants with high (1.1-2.4 SD) and very high (>2.5 SD) baseline p-tau217 had 24% (95% CI, 20%-28%) and 38% (95% CI, 33%-43%) absolute risk of progression over 5 years, respectively |
JAMA
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42449500 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher plasma p-tau217: each SD raised the hazard of incident cognitive impairment by 41%, more steeply in APOE-ε4 carriers (76%) than non-carriers (26%), with survival curves separating 3-4 years after the blood test. |
Prevalent and incident cognitive impairment (MCI or dementia) by plasma p-tau217 and APOE-ε4 status | cohort study | 8,582 | Higher p-tau217 concentrations at baseline were also associated with incident cognitive impairment (hazard ratio 1·41, 95% CI 1·22-1·64; for 1-SD increase of p-tau217 levels), with a stronger association in APOE-ε4 carriers (1·76, 1·36-2·26) than in non-carriers (1·26, 1·12-1·42). Each 1-SD increase in p-tau217 concentration was associated with a 24% shorter time to cognitive impairment among APOE-ε4 carriers, compared with 13% among non-carriers |
The Lancet. Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42716078 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Stand-alone plasma p-tau217 gave 81% accuracy and 79% PPV; confirming positives with PET or CSF raised both to 91% while cutting PET scans needed to find 100 amyloid-positive people from 536 to 124. Immunoassays matched mass spectrometry on PPV but had lower accuracy. |
Accuracy and positive predictive value for amyloid positivity (CSF or PET) in cognitively unimpaired people, stand-alone and in a two-step workflow | cross-sectional study | 2,916 | As a stand-alone test, plasma p-tau217 achieved a positive predictive value (PPV) of 79% (95% CI, 74-84) and an overall accuracy of 81% (95% CI, 80-82). In a 2-step workflow, the PPV and accuracy significantly increased to 91% (95% CI, 86-95). While this approach required screening of 677 individuals with plasma p-tau217 to identify 100 Aβ-positive individuals, compared to 536 participants when using PET alone, it reduced the need for PET testing to 124 |
JAMA Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40952756 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Combined plasma %p-tau217 and Aβ42/40 detected abnormal CSF amyloid status (AUC 0.949) and each predicted rising amyloid PET over time in people who started below the positivity threshold, replicated in two further cohorts; p-tau231 and GFAP added no clear independent value. |
Prediction of subsequent brain amyloid accumulation (PET/CSF) in cognitively unimpaired people with subthreshold amyloid | cohort study | 983 | a combination of plasma %p-tau217 and Aβ42/40 showed better performance (area under the curve = 0.949; 95% CI, 0.929-0.970; P <.02) than individual biomarkers ... longitudinal Aβ-PET (%p-tau217: β = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.48-0.87; Aβ42/40: β = -0.33; 95% CI, -0.51 to -0.15; %p-tau217 × Aβ42/40: β = -0.31; 95% CI, -0.44 to -0.18; P < .001) |
JAMA Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39068669 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. All four assays (Lumipulse, Johnson & Johnson, ALZpath, NULISA) gave statistically equivalent AUCs of 0.84-0.90 for amyloid positivity, with cross-platform correlations of 0.40-0.86. |
Cross-assay agreement and AUC for amyloid PET positivity across four p-tau217 immunoassays | cross-sectional study | 344 | All four p-tau217 assays exhibited moderate to strong cross-platform correlations (Spearman correlations of 0.40–0.86), and statistically equivalent AUCs (of 0.84–0.90) for determining Aβ positivity |
Alzheimer's Research & Therapy
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41652516 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyAn editorial reviewing the FDA clearance of the Lumipulse plasma ratio test. It relays performance figures from the FDA summary and other studies and reports no data of its own. |
None measured (editorial on the FDA clearance) | None | not stated | FDA approval was based on clinical evidence showing strong agreement between plasma test results and confirmation by PET or CSF testing, with over 90% consistency in those with positive findings. In contrast, these reference methods confirmed 97.3% of those with negative plasma results to be amyloid negative |
Annals of Medicine and Surgery
2026 ⚠ Editorial — not peer-reviewed research PMID 41675863 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No effect
whyDirection is for the blood test's ability to detect treatment-related amyloid clearance on PET: AUC 0.61, which the authors call suboptimal and not currently usable for that purpose. It says nothing about the drug's effect. |
Detection of PET-confirmed amyloid clearance after donanemab (AUC at 52 weeks) | phase 3 trial | 830 | Plasma p-tau217 showed suboptimal performance in detecting TRAC by PET in donanemab-treated participants (N = 830), with an area under the ROC curve of 0.61 at 52 weeks |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42565262 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Among p-tau217-positive patients, a positive eMTBR-tau243 identified clinically established Alzheimer's disease with 81% accuracy and predicted faster cognitive decline and tau accumulation. |
Classification of established Alzheimer's disease by plasma eMTBR-tau243 among %p-tau217-positive patients | cohort study | 572 | 194 (55%) of 350 %p-tau217-positive patients were also positive for eMTBR-tau243, with an accuracy of 81% (95% CI 76-84), PPV 84% (95% CI 78-88), negative predictive value (NPV) 77% (95% CI 68-82), and sensitivity 82% (95% CI 76-87) for established Alzheimer's disease, in cross-sectional analyses |
The Lancet. Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41864233 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Subgroup-specific optimal cutoffs and a double-cutoff strategy both improved accuracy over the standard single cutoff, most markedly in chronic kidney disease (0.65 to 0.83) and anaemia. |
Accuracy of plasma p-tau217 for amyloid PET positivity under standard, subgroup-optimal and double cutoffs in people with kidney disease, abnormal BMI or anaemia | cross-sectional study | 2,571 | In the UGOT cohort, the optimal cutoff improved diagnostic accuracy compared with the standard single cutoff, particularly in CKD and anemia (CKD: from 0.65; 95% CI, 0.57-0.72; to 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76-0.89; anemia: from 0.80; 95% CI, 0.76-0.84; to 0.86; 95% CI, 0.82-0.90), with consistent findings in the Roche cohort |
JAMA neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41627837 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe review's own summary points two ways: CSF biomarker tests were mostly cost-effective against cognitive assessment or imaging, while blood biomarker tests showed mixed results; every included study was model-based. |
Cost-effectiveness of CSF and blood biomarker testing for AD diagnosis across nine model-based economic evaluations | systematic review | not stated | not established — systematic review without meta-analysis; the abstract reports no pooled estimate. |
European Journal of Health Economics
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41385058 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe findings point two ways: the p-tau217/Aβ42 ratio tracked AD-related factors (MCI, AD dementia, future progression, age, APOE ε4) more closely than either marker alone and had few intermediate results, but it was also related to kidney function, diabetes and hearing loss, and medical morbidities were most frequent among intermediate classifications. |
Associations of plasma p-tau217, Aβ42/40 and p-tau217/Aβ42 with AD-related factors and with medical comorbidities (kidney function, diabetes, hearing loss) in a health-system biobank | cross-sectional study | 617 | not established — pubmed abstract reports no numeric effect size. |
Annals of neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41447112 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The prespecified APS2 cut point gave 91% accuracy, 90% sensitivity and 92% specificity against amyloid PET. |
Agreement with amyloid PET in an independent cohort (ADNI) | cross-sectional study | 191 | Concordance with amyloid PET was high (AUC-ROC 0.95 (95% CI): 0.93-0.98); 54% of participants had a positive APS2. The previously validated APS2 cut point yielded an overall accuracy of 91% (95% CI: 86-94%), sensitivity 90% (95% CI: 83-94%) and specificity 92% (95% CI: 84-96%) |
npj Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40917102 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217 detected amyloid PET positivity with 82% sensitivity and 86% specificity, comparable to CSF p-tau217; less sensitive for tau PET. |
Sensitivity and specificity for amyloid and tau PET positivity (pooled) | meta-analysis | not stated | Plasma p-tau217 showed 82% sensitivity for detecting amyloid and 83% for tau, with 86% and 83% specificity, respectively. CSF p-tau217 had 79% sensitivity for amyloid and 91% for tau, with 91% and 84% specificity |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39711334 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. AUC 0.93-0.96; accuracy 89-91% in secondary care and 85% in primary care, lower (83%) at age 80 or older; a two-cutoff approach raised accuracy to 92-94% at the cost of 12-17% intermediate results. |
Diagnostic accuracy for Alzheimer pathology (CSF-defined) in secondary and primary care | cross-sectional study | 1,767 | Plasma p-tau217 detected AD pathology with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.93-0.96. In secondary care, the accuracies were 89-91%, the positive predictive values 89-95% and the negative predictive values 77-90%. In primary care, the accuracy was 85%, the positive predictive values 82% and the negative predictive values 88%. Accuracy was lower in participants aged ≥80 years (83%) |
Nature Medicine
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40205199 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217 was the best-performing marker (88.1% sensitivity, 88.7% specificity, AUROC 91.1%, moderate certainty), ahead of p-tau181 and p-tau231; about 90% of studies were at high risk of bias. |
Pooled sensitivity, specificity and AUROC for biologically defined Alzheimer's disease | meta-analysis | 29,625 | Plasma p-tau217 was the highest-performing biomarker for identifying biologically defined Alzheimer's disease, with pooled sensitivity of 88·1% (95% CI 86·7-89·5, moderate certainty of evidence), specificity of 88·7% (87·4-89·9, moderate certainty of evidence), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 91·1% (88·9-92·4, moderate certainty of evidence), and diagnostic odds ratio of 50·7 (40·6-63·4). p-tau181 pooled sensitivity was 80·5% (78·4-82·4, low certainty of evidence), specificity was 76·4% (74·1-78·6, low certainty of evidence), AUROC was 81·5% (80·2-82·9, low certainty of evidence) |
The Lancet Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40818474 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The Pitt-p-tau217 assay separated PSEN1 carriers from controls (AUC 0.94) and amyloid PET-positive from -negative cognitively normal adults (AUC up to 0.84), equivalent to the ALZpath assay. |
Classification accuracy of a new p-tau217 assay against PSEN1 carrier status and amyloid PET | cross-sectional study | 363 | Pitt-p-tau217 differentiated neuropathologically confirmed PSEN1 mutation carriers from controls with area under the curve (AUC) = 0.94, and amyloid beta (Aβ) positron emission tomography (PET)-positive from Aβ PET-negative cognitively normal older adults with AUC up to 0.84, equivalent to ALZpath-p-tau217 results. Both Pitt-p-tau217 and ALZpath-p-tau217 were slightly elevated in tau PET-positive versus tau PET-negative participants. Between-assay correlations were up to 0.93 |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40665482 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA clinical practice guideline. It sets performance thresholds for blood tests (at least 90% sensitivity and 75% specificity for triage; at least 90% for both to substitute for amyloid PET or CSF) and reports no effect estimate of its own. |
None measured (clinical practice guideline) | systematic review | not stated | not established — guideline; recommendations rather than an effect estimate. |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40729527 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Performance varied widely across tests, from 49.3% to 91.4% pooled sensitivity and 61.5% to 96.7% pooled specificity at a single cut-point, with most studies at high risk of bias. |
Pooled sensitivity and specificity of 31 blood-based biomarker tests for Alzheimer pathology in cognitively impaired people | meta-analysis | not stated | the pooled sensitivity ranged from 49.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 41.2-57.4) to 91.4% (95% CI: 86.6-94.6), and the pooled specificity ranged from 61.5% (95% CI: 45.6-75.3) to 96.7% (95% CI: 87.8-99.2) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41193403 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. All p-tau217 tests detected abnormal amyloid PET (AUC 0.91-0.96) and tau PET (0.94-0.97); the mass-spectrometry %p-tau217 ratio was best (accuracy 0.93 versus 0.83-0.88 for immunoassays) and is proposed as a stand-alone confirmatory test, with immunoassays better suited to triage. |
Accuracy of five plasma p-tau217 tests for amyloid PET and tau PET status, benchmarked against CSF tests | cohort study | 998 | All plasma p-tau217 tests exhibited a high ability to detect abnormal Aβ-PET [area under the curve (AUC) range: 0.91-0.96] and tau-PET (AUC range: 0.94-0.97) ... For detecting Aβ-PET status, %p-tau217WashU had an accuracy of 0.93 (immunoassays: 0.83-0.88), sensitivity of 0.91 (immunoassays: 0.84-0.87) and a specificity of 0.94 (immunoassays: 0.85-0.89) |
Brain
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39468767 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The Lumipulse plasma p-tau217/Aβ42 ratio reached AUC 0.963-0.966 for amyloid PET and 0.947-0.974 for tau PET, equivalent to CSF tests and better than plasma p-tau217 alone, with fewer intermediate results. |
Diagnostic accuracy for abnormal amyloid PET and tau PET in a clinic and a community cohort | cross-sectional study | 512 | Plasma p-tau217/Aβ42 exhibited high performance for abnormal statuses of Aβ PET (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.963 to 0.966) and tau PET (AUC: 0.947 to 0.974) ... The p-tau217/Aβ42 ratio had a lower intermediate percentage than p-tau217 alone in both clinic (10.6% vs 13.0%) and community (16.5% vs 31.4%) cohorts |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40156286 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217/Aβ42 had the highest accuracy (0.88 in Black and 0.91 in White participants) and fewest intermediate results, with no difference in classification by race. |
Accuracy for amyloid PET positivity in people who self-identify as Black or White | cross-sectional study | 1,135 | In the test set, plasma p-tau217/Aβ42 had the highest accuracy (pBlack: 0.88, pWhite: 0.91) and lowest proportion of intermediate classifications (≤0.16), with no classification difference by race (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.66-2.95, p = 0.33) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40801297 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for chronic kidney disease as a source of false signal: at eGFR 45 versus 60, p-tau217 was 31-55% higher in amyloid-negative people on two immunoassays, a rise largely removed by using the %p-tau217 ratio. A test-validity result, not a health outcome. |
Plasma p-tau217 concentration by kidney function (eGFR) in amyloid-negative and amyloid-positive people | cross-sectional study | 202 | For an eGFR of 45 vs 60 in the A- cohort, the calculated percentage changes were +31%, +55%, and +19%, for ALZpath p-tau217, C2N p-tau217, and C2N %p-tau217, respectively. For the A+ cohort, the corresponding calculated percentage changes were +17%, +15%, and -5%, respectively |
Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39823562 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217 identified symptomatic AD with 95% sensitivity and 82% specificity (86% with the Aβ42 ratio) and tracked CSF biomarkers closely (AUC 0.94-0.96); reduced kidney function raised levels in patients without AD. |
Sensitivity and specificity for symptomatic AD, and agreement with CSF biomarkers, in a tertiary outpatient memory clinic | cross-sectional study | 509 | Plasma p-tau217 distinguished patients with diagnoses of symptomatic AD with 95% sensitivity and 82% specificity. Integration of Aβ42 measurements (p-tau217/Aβ42) incrementally improved specificity (86%). Plasma p-tau217 and p-tau217/Aβ42 concentrations closely associated with established CSF biomarkers of AD (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.94 and 0.96, respectively) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40476540 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA price-threshold model: it estimates the test price at which diagnostic cost per true-positive case equals standard care ($290-$1,950 depending on use), and compares no actual price against it, so there is no direction to record. |
Value-based price of a blood test for AD pathology as a triage or confirmatory test in primary and specialty care, and projected reduction in PET/CSF use | modelling study | not stated | If used in primary care, the value-based price would be $290 for a triage and $1150 for a confirmatory test, respectively, as use of PET or CSF testing would decline by 47 % and 86 %, respectively. If used in specialty care, i.e., after confirmation of early-stage cognitive impairment, the overall number of blood tests would decline. Consequently, the value-based price would increase to $450 for a triage test and $1950 for a confirmatory test |
Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40494736 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The APS2 blood test reached AUC 0.96-0.97 and 88-92% accuracy, and its 91% accuracy for clinical AD beat primary care physicians (61%) and dementia specialists (73%). |
Diagnostic accuracy for Alzheimer pathology (CSF-defined), and for clinical AD versus physicians' assessment | cross-sectional study | 1,213 | the AUC was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95-0.99) when the APS2 was used, the PPV was 91% (95% CI, 87%-96%), and the NPV was 92% (95% CI, 87%-96%) [primary care, single batch]; Primary care physicians had a diagnostic accuracy of 61% (95% CI, 53%-69%) for identifying clinical AD after clinical examination, cognitive testing, and a computed tomographic scan vs 91% (95% CI, 86%-96%) using the APS2. Dementia specialists had a diagnostic accuracy of 73% (95% CI, 68%-79%) vs 91% (95% CI, 88%-95%) using the APS2 |
JAMA
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39068545 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. APS2 gave AUC 0.94 and 88% agreement with amyloid PET, with similar performance by ethnicity, sex, age and APOE4 status. |
Agreement with amyloid PET (brain amyloidosis) | cross-sectional study | 583 | The AUC-ROC for the PrecivityAD2 test output, the Amyloid Probability Score 2, was 0.94, yielding 88% agreement with amyloid PET |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38491912 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The ALZpath plasma p-tau217 immunoassay reached AUC 0.92-0.96 for amyloid and 0.93-0.97 for tau across three cohorts, comparable with CSF, and a three-range cut-off cut confirmatory testing by about 80%. |
Accuracy for abnormal amyloid and tau pathology (PET or CSF) and longitudinal change | cohort study | 786 | High accuracy was observed in identifying elevated Aβ (area under the curve [AUC], 0.92-0.96; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99) and tau pathology (AUC, 0.93-0.97; 95% CI, 0.84-0.99) across all cohorts. These accuracies were comparable with CSF biomarkers in determining abnormal PET signal. The detection of abnormal Aβ pathology using a 3-range reference yielded reproducible results and reduced confirmatory testing by approximately 80% |
JAMA Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38252443 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma p-tau217 identified amyloid positivity with AUC 0.94; a two-cut-point rule sent only 17% for CSF or PET (sensitivity 0.94, specificity 0.86), and among amyloid-positive people it identified high tau load (AUC 0.92), potentially avoiding 56.9% of tau-PET scans. |
Identification of amyloid positivity and of high tau-PET load (to select candidates for anti-amyloid antibodies) | cohort study | 912 | plasma p-tau217 was most strongly associated with Aβ positivity (test-set area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97) ... This procedure had an overall sensitivity of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.98) and a specificity of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.77-0.95) ... At a false-negative rate less than 10%, the use of plasma p-tau217 could avoid 56.9% of tau-PET scans needed to identify high tau PET among Aβ-positive participants |
JAMA Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38048096 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
No direction reported
whyA workgroup recommendations document. It sets target sensitivity and specificity for blood biomarker tests (≥90% / ≥85% for triage in primary care; ~90% / ~90% as a confirmatory test) and reports no data of its own. |
None measured (performance recommendations) | None | not stated | not established — recommendations document; the abstract states target performance thresholds, not an effect estimate. |
Nature Reviews Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38866966 |
| Blood biomarker test (p-tau217 / amyloid ratio) Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. A blood model of p-tau217, age and APOE ε4 (AUC 89.3% development, 94.3% validation) used to triage patients gave 88-92% overall accuracy while cutting confirmatory CSF tests by 61-86%. |
Accuracy for amyloid PET status and reduction in confirmatory CSF tests with a two-step plasma p-tau217 workflow | cohort study | 348 | Depending on whether lenient, moderate or stringent thresholds were used in step 1, the two-step workflow overall accuracy for detecting Aβ-PET status was 88.2%, 90.5% and 92.0%, respectively, while reducing the number of necessary CSF tests by 85.9%, 72.7% and 61.2%, respectively |
Nature Aging
2023 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 37653254 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau181) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for disclosing the blood panel during multidisciplinary meetings: median diagnostic confidence rose from 80% to 90%, though the suspected etiology changed in only 5% of patients and the syndrome diagnosis in 1%. Against CSF/PET, high- and low-probability results identified 76% of amyloid positives and 85% of negatives. |
Change in clinician diagnostic confidence and in syndrome or etiological diagnosis after disclosure of a plasma biomarker panel (p-tau181, GFAP, NfL) | cohort study | 450 | Median (IQR) diagnostic confidence in the total cohort increased from 80% (70%-90%) to 90% (70%-90%) after BBM disclosure (P < .001), increasing in 207 patients (46%), unchanged in 175 patients (39%), and decreasing in 68 patients (15%). Following BBM disclosure, syndrome diagnoses were revised in 6 patients (1%) and primary etiology was revealed in 23 patients (5%) |
JAMA Network Open
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42593792 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau181) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe results point different ways: diagnostic confidence rose 1.43 points, but diagnosis changed in only 17.2% and management in 27.7%, below the 30% threshold the investigators set as clinically significant; a non-elevated result reduced amyloid PET use, and patients with elevated results had higher anxiety at 2-3 months. |
Change in clinician diagnostic confidence, diagnosis and management after plasma p-tau181 testing in a memory clinic, and patient wellbeing (SUITABLE) | cohort study | 100 | Clinician diagnostic confidence averaged 1.43 points higher after p-tau181 testing (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02 to 1.84, p < 0.0001). After testing, 27.7% (95% CI 18.9% to 36.4%, p = 0.31) of patients had a change in management and 17.2% of patients had a change in diagnosis - significantly lower than the 30% threshold (95% CI 9.5% to 24.9%, p = 0.004) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia: Translational Research & Clinical Interventions
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42254757 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Mixed
whyThe findings point different ways: lower eGFR raised every blood biomarker except Aβ42/40 (a test-interpretation caveat), yet impaired kidney function did not itself raise dementia risk (HR 0.93), while the association between high NfL and dementia was about twice as strong in people with impaired kidneys. |
Blood AD biomarker levels by kidney function (eGFR), and incident dementia over a mean 8.3 years by kidney function and NfL | cohort study | 2,279 | At eGFR = 30 mL/min/1.73 m2, estimated differences were as follows: p-tau181: β, 0.22 [95% CI 0.09-0.35]; p-tau217: β, 0.20 [95% CI 0.10-0.31]; t-tau: β, 0.24 [95% CI 0.05-0.42]; NfL: β, 0.88 [95% CI 0.80-0.95]; GFAP: β, 0.10 [95% CI 0.03-0.16] ... impaired kidney function (eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) was not associated with an increased hazard of dementia compared with preserved kidney function (eGFR ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.93 [95% CI 0.72-1.21]). The relationship between increased (high vs low) NfL and dementia was stronger among individuals with impaired (vs preserved) kidney function (HR, 3.85 [95% CI 1.87-7.95] vs HR, 1.84 [95% CI 1.34-2.53], respectively) |
Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41337685 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the blood test's prognostic performance: plasma p-tau217 predicted cognitive decline and progression to MCI as well as tau PET (R2 0.33 vs 0.34; HR 1.57 vs 1.61), and using the blood test first cut the number needed to screen for a trial by 94%. A prognostic-performance result, not a health outcome. |
Prediction of future cognitive decline and progression to MCI: plasma p-tau217 head-to-head with tau PET | cohort study | 1,474 | plasma p-tau217 and medial temporal lobe tau-PET signal display similar associations with cognitive decline on a global cognitive composite test (R2PET = 0.34 versus R2plasma = 0.33, Pdifference = 0.653) and with progression to mild cognitive impairment (hazard ratio (HR)PET = 1.61 (1.48-1.76) versus HRplasma = 1.57 (1.43-1.72), Pdifference = 0.322) ... Sequential selection using plasma phosphorylated tau at threonine 217 (p-tau217) and then tau-PET reduced the number of participants required for a clinical trial by 94%, compared to a 76% reduction when using plasma p-tau217 alone |
Nature Aging
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40155777 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for abnormal baseline plasma p-tau217: people positive for both plasma amyloid and tau progressed to MCI at 7.8 times the rate of those negative for both, and tau-positive/amyloid-negative people at 4.3 times. CSF and PET gave similar results; adding plasma Aβ42/40 did not improve prediction. |
Progression to MCI over a mean 5.65 years (up to 10.5) by baseline plasma amyloid/tau status | cohort study | 215 | Cox proportional hazard models indicated a greater progression rate in A+T+plasma and A-T+plasma compared to A-T-plasma individuals (HR = 7.81 [95% CI = 3.92 to 15.59] and HR = 4.25 [1.60-11.31] respectively). Similar results were found with CSF (HR = 3.63 [1.72-7.70]) and PET (HR = 9.30 [3.67-23.55]) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40008832 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Mixed
whyThe two measures behaved differently: baseline plasma p-tau217 predicted later cognitive decline about as well as entorhinal tau PET (ρ -0.47 vs -0.55), but over time p-tau217 rose then decelerated and tracked concurrent cognitive change only weakly (ρ -0.24) or not at all in the PET substudy, whereas regional tau PET change correlated strongly with concurrent decline. |
Prognostic association with, and concurrent tracking of, cognitive change in preclinical AD: plasma p-tau217 versus tau PET | cohort study | 1,707 | Baseline associations with longitudinal change in PACC score in Aβ+ participants were strongest in the entorhinal cortex (correlation [ρ] = -0.55; 95% CI, -0.63 to -0.45) and plasma p-tau217 levels (ρ = -0.47; 95% CI, -0.56 to -0.37) ... Levels of plasma p-tau217 increased significantly in Aβ+ participants before showing significant deceleration (χ2 = 21.7; P < .001) and were not associated with concurrent cognitive change in the tau PET substudy (ρ = -0.03; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.16) but were modestly associated with concurrent cognitive changes in the full plasma sample (n = 1119; ρ = -0.24; 95% CI, -0.34 to -0.14) |
JAMA Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40853684 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher baseline plasma GFAP in cognitively unimpaired adults: it predicted faster cognitive decline, CDR progression, cortical atrophy and conversion to amyloid positivity, with stronger effects in females. |
Cognitive decline (PACC), CDR progression, AD-signature cortical atrophy and amyloid conversion over 240 weeks by baseline plasma GFAP | cohort study | 949 | not established — pubmed abstract results reports directions only (higher gfap predicted faster decline, cdr progression, atrophy and amyloid conversion) and prints… |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41268784 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for higher plasma pTau217: it was associated with global and domain-specific cognitive decline within both racial groups and discriminated 3-year dementia well (AUC 0.81 in Black and 0.77 in White adults); biomarker levels were similar across races and the association with decline was similar, though pTau217 tracked faster global and semantic memory decline in Black adults. |
Cognitive decline and 3-year dementia discrimination by plasma pTau217, GFAP, NfL and Aβ ratio in Black and White older adults without dementia | cohort study | 1,014 | between races, pTau217 was associated with a faster decline in global cognition (β = -0.03, SE = 0.012, p = 0.018) and semantic memory (β = -0.068, SE = 0.016, p < 0.001) in Black individuals. The discrimination of dementia by pTau217 (area under the curve [AUC]3-year, Black 0.81, 95% CI 0.74-0.89; AUC3-year, White 0.77, 95% CI 0.71-0.83) was good relative to age (AUC3-year, Black 0.69, 95% CI 0.58-0.79; AUC3-year, White 0.68, 95% CI 0.62-0.75) |
Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41151002 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for adverse biomarker levels: only the Alzheimer-specific markers measured in midlife (lower Aβ42:Aβ40, higher p-tau181) predicted dementia two decades later, while every marker measured in late life did, NfL most strongly (HR 1.92 per SD). Biomarkers changed faster in APOE ε4 carriers and with midlife hypertension or diabetes. |
Incident all-cause dementia by midlife and late-life plasma biomarker levels | cohort study | 1,525 | Only AD-specific biomarkers in midlife demonstrated long-term associations with late-life dementia (hazard ratio per SD lower Aβ42:Aβ40 ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.21; per SD higher p-tau181, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.25). All plasma biomarkers in late life had statistically significant associations with late-life dementia, with NfL demonstrating the largest association (1.92; 95% CI, 1.72-2.14) |
JAMA
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39068543 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for high serum NfL or GFAP: the top tertile of either raised incident dementia risk by 38-49% and roughly tripled dementia-specific mortality; being in the top tertile of both doubled dementia risk and raised dementia mortality nine-fold. NfL was independently associated with faster cognitive decline. |
Incident dementia and dementia-specific mortality over 19 years by serum NfL and GFAP tertile | cohort study | 1,712 | being in the highest versus lowest tertile of NfL or GFAP associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.49 (1.20-1.84) and 1.38 (1.15-1.66) for incident dementia, and 2.87 (1.79-4.61) and 2.76 (1.73-4.40) for dementia-specific mortality. Joint third versus first tertile exposure further increased risk; HR = 2.06 (1.60-2.67) and 9.22 (4.48-18.9) |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2023 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 37392405 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for astrocyte reactivity: amyloid was associated with higher plasma p-tau only in people positive for astrocyte reactivity, and an AD-like pattern of tau-PET accumulation as a function of amyloid appeared only in those individuals, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. |
Association of amyloid with plasma phosphorylated tau and with tau-PET tangle accumulation, by astrocyte reactivity status | cohort study | 1,016 | not established — pubmed abstract reports no numeric effect size. |
Nature Medicine
2023 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 37248300 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for a rising serum NfL: its rate of change separated mutation carriers from non-carriers 16.2 years before expected symptom onset (versus 6.8 years for a single level), peaked around symptom conversion, and predicted cortical thinning and cognitive decline. |
Cortical thinning and cognitive change in presymptomatic familial Alzheimer's disease | cohort study | 405 | the rate of change of serum NfL could discriminate mutation carriers from non-mutation carriers almost a decade earlier than cross-sectional absolute NfL levels (that is, 16.2 versus 6.8 years before the estimated symptom onset) |
Nature Medicine
2019 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 30664784 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Harm
whyDirection is for microglial activation: amyloid was associated with astrocyte reactivity across cortical regions only when microglia were activated, and that microglia-dependent reactivity related to cognitive impairment through tau phosphorylation and aggregation. |
Astrocyte reactivity (plasma GFAP) in relation to amyloid PET and microglial activation PET, and downstream tau and cognitive impairment | cross-sectional study | 352 | not established — pubmed abstract reports no numeric effect size. |
Nature Neuroscience
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41198899 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. The two-marker plasma model matched PET-based stages with a C index of 0.91 in both the derivation and validation cohorts, tracked clinical stage (C index 0.84-0.86) and aligned with autopsy ADNC (AUC 0.96), improving on %p-tau217 alone at the intermediate stage. |
Concordance of a plasma %p-tau217 plus eMTBR-tau243 staging model with amyloid/tau PET-based biological stages, clinical stage and autopsy-confirmed AD pathology | cohort study | 1,028 | A plasma-based model with %p-tau217 and eMTBR-tau243 was derived, which demonstrated high concordance with established PET-based stages (C index, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.90-0.92) and was associated with clinical stage within the AD continuum (C index, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.82-0.86). In the validation cohort, concordance with PET-based stages was high (C index, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94), as was concordance with clinical stage (C index, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.82-0.89) ... In the neuropathology subsample, plasma staging was strongly aligned with autopsy-confirmed AD pathology using the Alzheimer Disease Neuropathologic Change scale (area under the curve, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.91-1.00) |
JAMA Neurology
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42189519 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the test's accuracy against the reference standard; an accuracy result, not a health outcome. Plasma Aβ42/40, p-tau217, p-tau181 and NfL classified AD with AUC 83% and FTLD with 88%, consistent across countries, rising to 89% and 95% when combined with neuroimaging patterns and cognitive measures. |
Discrimination of AD and frontotemporal lobar degeneration from controls by plasma AT(N) biomarkers in a multinational Latin American cohort | cross-sectional study | 605 | Classification models achieved receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve (ROC AUCs) of 83% for AD and 88% for FTLD ... Biomarker alterations combined with disease-specific neuroimaging patterns and cognitive measures further improved accuracy (ROC AUCs of 89% for AD and 95% for FTLD) |
Nature Aging
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41688826 |
| Blood biomarkers (GFAP, NfL, p-tau217) for staging and prognosis Care, carers and services | Treatment |
Mixed
whyThe three markers pointed different ways: plasma p-tau217 distinguished amyloid/tau stages, GFAP tracked amyloid-driven tau progression, and NfL was only weakly linked to Alzheimer pathology and, in the authors' words, inadequate as a neuronal injury biomarker for AD. |
Discrimination of amyloid/tau stages, tau progression, hippocampal atrophy and cognitive decline | cohort study | 1,275 | not established — pubmed abstract results reports no numeric estimate. the library had recorded "p-tau217 auc 0.959", which does not appear in the abstract and is not… |
Alzheimer's & Dementia
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41376134 |
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