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Every row of the evidence table
One row per finding: what was tested, which way the result went, and how the study was built. The answer by area, and where the studies disagree, are on the main page.
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Showing 5 of 382 rows. One row per study per exposure: a study that tested two different things appears twice, once for each.
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| Exposure | Question | Direction | Outcome measured | Design | People | Effect size, as the source reported it | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birth cohort and calendar period (secular trend in dementia) All modifiable factors together | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for more recent birth cohort: after controlling for age and period, later-born cohorts were less likely to have dementia in all three regions, more so among women; the point estimates for men in England were not significant. |
Age-specific dementia prevalence by birth cohort in the US, Europe and England | cross-sectional study | 62,437 | point estimate for 1944-1948 vs 1919-1923 cohorts: US, -0.55 [95% CI, -0.77 to -0.34] vs -0.18 [95% CI, -0.25 to -0.10]; Europe, -1.49 [95% CI, -1.72 to -1.27] vs -0.24 [95% CI, -0.35 to -0.13]; and England, -0.48 [95% CI, -0.89 to -0.08] vs -0.23 [95% CI, -0.38 to -0.07] |
JAMA Network Open
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40455442 |
| Birth cohort and calendar period (secular trend in dementia) All modifiable factors together | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for later birth cohort: each successive cohort had a significantly lower incident dementia rate, independent of sex, education and age. |
Incident dementia rate by decade of birth (1902-1941) | cohort study | 3,010 | Compared to the earliest birth cohort (1902-1911), each subsequent cohort had a significantly lower incident dementia rate (1912-1921: incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.655, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.477-0.899; 1922-1931: IRR = 0.387, 95% CI = 0.265-0.564; 1932-1941: IRR = 0.233, 95% CI = 0.121-0.449) |
The Journals of Gerontology: Series A (Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences)
2019 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 30312371 |
| Birth cohort and calendar period (secular trend in dementia) All modifiable factors together | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the later survey year: prevalence fell from 11.6% to 8.8%, with rising education associated with some of the decline despite a worse cardiovascular risk profile. |
Dementia prevalence among US adults 65+, 2000 versus 2012 | cross-sectional study | 21,057 | Dementia prevalence among those 65 years or older decreased from 11.6% (95% CI, 10.7%-12.7%) in 2000 to 8.8% (95% CI, 8.2%-9.4%) (8.6% with age- and sex-standardization) in 2012 (P < .001) |
JAMA Internal Medicine
2017 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 27893041 |
| Birth cohort and calendar period (secular trend in dementia) All modifiable factors together | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for later calendar epoch: incidence fell 44% from the first to the fourth epoch, but only among people with at least a high school diploma. The authors could not fully explain the decline. |
5-year incidence of dementia across four epochs (late 1970s to early 2010s) | cohort study | 5,205 | The 5-year age- and sex-adjusted cumulative hazard rates for dementia were 3.6 per 100 persons during the first epoch (late 1970s and early 1980s), 2.8 per 100 persons during the second epoch (late 1980s and early 1990s), 2.2 per 100 persons during the third epoch (late 1990s and early 2000s), and 2.0 per 100 persons during the fourth epoch (late 2000s and early 2010s). Relative to the incidence during the first epoch, the incidence declined by 22%, 38%, and 44% during the second, third, and fourth epochs, respectively. This risk reduction was observed only among persons who had at least a high school diploma (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.88) |
New England Journal of Medicine
2016 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 26863354 |
| Birth cohort and calendar period (secular trend in dementia) All modifiable factors together | Prevention |
Benefit
whyDirection is for the later-born population: prevalence was 6.5% against the 8.3% expected from the earlier study (odds ratio 0.7), which the authors read as a cohort effect. |
Dementia prevalence at age 65+ in three English areas, CFAS II (2008-11) versus CFAS I (1989-94) | cross-sectional study | 15,431 | Using CFAS I age and sex specific estimates of prevalence in individuals aged 65 years or older, standardised to the 2011 population, 8·3% (884,000) of this population would be expected to have dementia in 2011. However, CFAS II shows that the prevalence is lower (6·5%; 670,000), a decrease of 1·8% (odds ratio for CFAS II vs CFAS I 0·7, 95% CI 0·6-0·9, p=0·003) |
The Lancet
2013 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 23871492 |