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Every row of the evidence table
One row per finding: what was tested, which way the result went, and how the study was built. The answer by area, and where the studies disagree, are on the main page.
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Showing 13 of 382 rows. One row per study per exposure: a study that tested two different things appears twice, once for each.
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| Exposure | Question | Direction | Outcome measured | Design | People | Effect size, as the source reported it | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modifiable risk factors combined All modifiable factors together | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for carrying the risk factors. The weighted combined estimate (32.0% for seven factors) is lower than the Lancet Commission's 45% for 14. |
Population attributable fraction of dementia | meta-analysis | not stated | Weighted combined PAF 32.0% (95% CI 26.6-37.5) for seven modifiable factors |
Lancet Healthy Longevity
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 38824956 |
| Peripheral diseases combined (population attributable fraction) All modifiable factors together | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for carrying the peripheral diseases: together they were related to about one-third of global dementia burden, led by periodontal disease, chronic liver disease, hearing loss, vision loss and type 2 diabetes. Attributable fractions assume the pooled associations are causal. |
Population attributable fraction of global dementia burden for 16 peripheral diseases | meta-analysis | not stated | Globally, these peripheral diseases collectively were related to a combined PAF of 33.18% (95% confidence interval (CI) 16.80-48.43) of dementia burden, corresponding to 18.8 million prevalent cases. The leading ten PAF contributors were periodontal diseases (6.10%, 95% CI 0.95-10.28), cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (5.51%, 95% CI 1.77-8.86), age-related and other hearing loss (4.70%, 95% CI 3.51-6.06), blindness and vision loss (4.30%, 95% CI 3.43-5.05), type 2 diabetes mellitus (3.80%, 95% CI 3.06-4.53) |
Nature human behaviour
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41559195 |
| Sleep EEG brain age index (digital marker) Care, carers and services | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for an older-than-chronological sleep EEG brain age: each 10-year increase in the index was associated with a 39% higher risk of incident dementia, consistent across sex and age groups. |
Incident dementia per 10-year increase in sleep-EEG brain age index | meta-analysis | 7,105 | each 10-year increase in BAI was associated with a 39% higher risk of incident dementia (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39 [95% CI, 1.21-1.59]; P < .001) after adjustment for covariates. These associations remained after additional adjustment for comorbidities and apnea-hypopnea index scores (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.14-1.50]; P < .001) and apolipoprotein E ε4 (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.02-1.45]; P = .03) |
JAMA network open
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41854616 |
| Ultra-processed food Diet and supplements | Prevention |
Harm
whyHeterogeneity was extreme (I-squared 97%), so the pooled figure hides large differences between the 10 studies. |
Dementia | meta-analysis | 867,316 | Pooled RR 1.44 (95% CI 1.09-1.90) for high vs low ultra-processed food intake |
Journal of Neurology
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 37831127 |
| Air pollution Environment | Prevention |
Harm
whyHeterogeneity was high (I-squared 95%). Reaches a firmer conclusion than the earlier BMJ meta-analysis of largely the same literature. |
Incident dementia | meta-analysis | 24,030,527 | PM2.5 HR 1.08 per 5 ug/m3 (95% CI 1.02-1.14); NO2 HR 1.03 per 10 ug/m3 (1.01-1.05) |
Lancet Planetary Health
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 40716448 |
| Polygenic risk / GWAS loci Genes (not modifiable) | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for a high polygenic score (excluding APOE): people in the top decile had a twofold risk of Braak stage >4 tangles and of moderate-to-severe amyloid plaque pathology at death. 91 loci identified, 16 new; 18 further loci await validation. |
Genome-wide risk loci and a polygenic score's association with tau and amyloid pathology at death | meta-analysis | 978,514 | We identified 91 genetic loci associated with ADRD risk, of which 16 are new and 56 are specifically detected in clinically diagnosed AD cases ... Individuals in the tenth decile of the score exhibited a twofold increased risk of presenting with Braak neurofibrillary tangles stage of >4 and moderate-to-severe neuritic amyloid plaque pathology at death compared to individuals in the median score group |
Nature Genetics
2026 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 42237039 |
| Polygenic risk / GWAS loci Genes (not modifiable) | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for carrying a higher genetic risk score: risk of AD rose 1.6- to 1.9-fold from the lowest to the highest decile, over and above age and APOE4. The main output is 75 risk loci, 42 new. |
Genome-wide risk loci and a genetic risk score for future AD/dementia | meta-analysis | 788,989 | We found 75 risk loci, of which 42 were new at the time of analysis ... The improvement in prediction led to a 1.6- to 1.9-fold increase in AD risk from the lowest to the highest decile, in addition to effects of age and the APOE ε4 allele |
Nature Genetics
2022 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 35379992 |
| Hearing loss / hearing aids Hearing and vision | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for having the impairment. Dual sensory impairment carried the highest risk (HR 1.63 for all-cause dementia, 2.55 for Alzheimer's). |
All-cause and cause-specific dementia | meta-analysis | 937,908 | Hearing impairment: pooled HR 1.30 (95% CI 1.21-1.40); dual sensory impairment HR 1.63 (1.14-2.12) for all-cause dementia |
BMC Medicine
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39506811 |
| Vision impairment / cataract surgery Hearing and vision | Prevention |
Harm
whyDirection is for having a vision impairment. Single vision impairment raised all-cause dementia risk but not Alzheimer's specifically; having both hearing and vision impairment carried the highest risk. |
All-cause and cause-specific dementia | meta-analysis | 937,908 | UK Biobank cohort: vision impairment and all-cause dementia HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.18-2.04) and non-Alzheimer non-vascular dementia HR 1.51 (1.07-2.13). Meta-analysis of 31 cohorts: single vision impairment and all-cause dementia HR 1.43 (95% CI 1.16-1.71), not significant for Alzheimer's. Mendelian randomisation: vision impairment and non-AD non-VD OR 1.62 (95% CI 1.13-2.33). Dual sensory impairment: all-cause dementia HR 1.63 (1.14-2.12) |
BMC Medicine
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39506811 |
| Type 2 diabetes Heart and metabolic health | Prevention | Harm | Incident all-cause, vascular and non-vascular dementia | meta-analysis | 2,310,330 | All-cause dementia: women RR 1.62 (95% CI 1.45-1.80), men RR 1.58 (95% CI 1.38-1.81); vascular dementia: women RR 2.34 (95% CI 1.86-2.94), men RR 1.73 (95% CI 1.61-1.85); non-vascular dementia: women RR 1.53 (95% CI 1.35-1.73), men RR 1.49 (95% CI 1.31-1.69) |
Diabetes Care
2016 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 26681727 |
| Sleep Sleep, mood and social life | Prevention |
Harm
whyEight kinds of sleep disturbance were analysed; both short and long sleep carried higher risk, as did excessive daytime sleepiness and insomnia. |
Cognitive decline or dementia | meta-analysis | not stated | Excessive daytime sleepiness RR 1.41 for all-cause dementia; long sleep RR 1.66 for Alzheimer's disease |
Journal of Neurology
2025 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 41081870 |
| Sleep Sleep, mood and social life | Prevention |
Harm
whyNo significant association with vascular dementia, and none of the 11 studies used biomarkers to confirm the diagnoses. |
Any neurocognitive disorder; Alzheimer's disease | meta-analysis | 1,333,424 | HR 1.43 (95% CI 1.26-1.62) for any neurocognitive disorder; Alzheimer's HR 1.28 (1.16-1.41) |
Journal of Sleep Research
2022 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 35366021 |
| Social isolation / loneliness Sleep, mood and social life | Prevention |
Harm
whyPersisted after controlling for depression and social isolation. |
Incident all-cause dementia | meta-analysis | 608,561 | All-cause dementia HR 1.306 (95% CI 1.197-1.426); Alzheimer's disease HR 1.393 (95% CI 1.290-1.504, 5 samples); vascular dementia HR 1.735 (95% CI 1.483-2.029, 3 samples); cognitive impairment HR 1.150 (95% CI 1.113-1.189, 16 samples) |
Nature Mental Health
2024 ✓ Peer-reviewed PMID 39802418 |